Dense Fog in Indiana, May 6 to 7, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED SHORT-TERM GRIDS TO KEEP ISO SHRA CHC EARLY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK VORT MAX CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY MOVING EAST AT
ABOUT 60KTS ACROSS SEMO WITH S/W TROUGH AHEAD OF IT. LINE OF VERY
LIGHT SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MAY GIVE A LIGHT SHOWER TO PARTS OF
THE AREA THROUGH 02Z. UPDATED SHORT TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2009/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL BUT THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MEANWHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY...THEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN AGAIN
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASE ALONG WITH A
NEVER ENDING SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

WITH WINDS ALOFT FORECAST TO BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE ORIENTATION
OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...UNFORTUNATELY IT WILL BE A
VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT ON THE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT EITHER WAY THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED WITH
LOWER POPS ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAY FINALLY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY NIGHT.  BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...THOUGH
GFS DOES TRY TO REGENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUNDAY.  WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC ECMWF
AND STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.  BOTH MODELS THEN TRY TO
BRING SOME LIGHT QPF BACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST
AREA LATE SUNDAY...SO INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT SOME EASTERN COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY.  FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MEANDER TO OUR SOUTH.

GFS AND ECMWF FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
TO WARRANT THE REMOVAL OF ANY POPS FROM THE FORECAST.  HOWEVER...BY
LATE TUESDAY...GFS BRINGS SOME PRECIP CHANCES BACK INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH ECMWF JOINING IN ON THE FUN BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION.  STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WEST FOR TUESDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.  OVERALL...EXTENDED FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MOVE...WHICH WOULD CHANGE OUR PRECIP CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO LATEST MEX FOR TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  BY MONDAY...STARTED TRENDING A LITTLE
WARMER THAN THE MEX...ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED RW/TRW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
AFFECT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR
THE MOST PART WITH AN OCCASIONAL IFR CIG. VSBYS WILL REMAIN VFR
EXCEPT IN RW/TRW. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AS WE AWAIT OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
448 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-071000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
448 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON SEVERAL
RIVERS...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS ON
RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. DURING THE NIGHT...AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WIND WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE NIGHT TIME ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION TO
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...AND MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEPEND
ON HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME FOLLOWING ANY PREVIOUS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS VERY LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD.

MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING WILL PERSIST ON SEVERAL AREA
RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

MY