Damaging Wind and Heavy Rain in Indiana, July 16 to 17, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
317 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENT TO POP GRIDS ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO LATEST GFS
NOW SHOWING A FROPA AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009/

DISCUSSION...
BIGGEST CHALLENGES WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE CONVECTION IN THE
SHORT TERM AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES BEYOND THAT.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE AR/MO AND KY/TN BORDERS. THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL CROSS OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. POP CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST
OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS TAPERING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST
DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...SO
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE OVER OUR AREA AT THIS
TIME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING WELCOME RELIEF TO THE RECENT
HEAT AND HUMIDITY. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THE REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY DRY...ALBEIT NOT LIKELY
TO STAY THAT WAY WITH THE REGION BEING IN CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. LATEST ECMWF TRIES TO BRING A FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
GFS DURING THE SAME PERIOD KEEPS ALL PRECIP TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
UNTIL WE SEE A BETTER SIGNAL POINTING TOWARD PRECI CHANCES...WILL
GO ALONG WITH THE NEIGHBORS AND KEEP THINGS DRY.

FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT WITH GFS ENSEMBLE NUMBERS...AT LEAST IN
THE SHORT TERM.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OF MVFR/VFR VARIETY WILL DISSIPATE BY
EARLY EVENING...BUT NOT BEFORE PRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KCGI AND KPAH. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE DENSITY SHOULD BE LESS THAN LAST NIGHT OWING TO
THE IMPACT FROM THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...SKIES
WILL CLEAR ON FRIDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

RJP/JAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
949 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-171000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
949 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST
FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1130 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

ILZ077-078-083-170530-
WHITE IL-WABASH IL-EDWARDS IL-
1130 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EDWARDS...WABASH AND WHITE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1128 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY STRONG WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH.  THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF GOLDEN GATE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
THIS STORM WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF EDWARDS AND
WABASH COUNTIES...AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF WHITE COUNTY.

STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1134 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIRFIELD               38.38N 88.37W
07/16/2009                   WAYNE              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN. ALSO...PEA SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED.

&&

DLL