Damaging Wind in Idaho, June 8, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1108 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEATHER PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SPRING WILL DOMINATE THE
INLAND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISTURBANCES TRACKING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH COMBINED WITH A PUSH OF
COOLER AIR FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL USHER IN THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER. SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY...ACTIVE WEATHER THIS MORNING CARE OF A ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING ESE THROUGH NW MONTANA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WAS PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN
EXTENDING FROM THE NE CORNER OF WA SOUTH TO THE PALOUSE AND
EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH IDAHO. MODEL SOLUTIONS DID NOT FARE
ALL THAT WELL WITH THE RESULTANT QPF FIELDS. THE NAM INITIALLY WAS
FAR TOO WEST WHILE THE GFS WAS FAR TOO LIGHT AND EXPANDED THE
PRECIP TOO FAR SOUTH. WHILE THE MODELS HAVE NOT FARED WELL WITH
THE QPF VALUES...THEY WERE NAILING THE POSITION AND TRACK OF THE
NW MT SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE TRACK OF FEATURE...WE EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...TO SHIFT ESE THROUGH THE DAY...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD ACTUALLY
FALL AS SNOW ABOVE 6000 FT BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 2-4C.
CAPE VALUES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE RANGE FROM 200-400
J/KG AND SUPPORT A THREAT FOR THUNDER EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
BENEWAH AND INTO SOUTHERN SHOSHONE COUNTY. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WE HAVE ALSO LOWERED HI TEMPS FOR THE
DAY OVER LOCATIONS SUBJECT TO THIS PRECIP SHIELD.

ELSEWHERE...WHERE THE SUN HAS BEEN SHINING FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
CAPE VALUES AND SHEAR BY AFTERNOON ARE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY BUT
STILL COULD SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN RISK
AREAS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH CASCADES AND THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF
THE CWA NEAR THE BLUES BASED ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S. IF ENOUGH SUN DEVELOPS LATER TODAY OVER NE WA AND
EXTREME N IDAHO WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME THUNDER DEVELOP THERE AS
WELL. FX

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN WX CHALLENGE THROUGH 18Z TUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND SHIELD OF
PRECIPITATION COVERING THE NE CORNER OF WA AND EXTENDING INTO N
ID. THIS AREA WILL SEE OCNL RA THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z WITH AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS. AFT 21Z OR SO...MOST OF THIS PRECIP WILL SLIDE E OF THE
KCOE-KGEG CORRIDOR. IT COULD BRUSH THE KPUW AREA AS WELL. AFT
21Z...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW -TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ELSEWHERE...WITH MOST FORMING OVER THE N CASCADES AND BLUE
MTS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF BTWN 03-05Z. FX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        62  48  73  51  78  54 /  90  20  10  10  10  10
COEUR DALENE  60  45  71  48  76  50 /  90  20  20  10  20  20
PULLMAN        63  43  72  45  75  48 /  50  30  10  10  10  10
LEWISTON       70  50  77  53  83  55 /  30  20  10  10  10  10
COLVILLE       67  44  74  48  82  49 /  90  20  20  20  20  20
SANDPOINT      60  41  66  46  75  48 /  90  30  30  20  20  20
KELLOGG        57  44  68  45  75  49 /  80  40  30  20  20  20
MOSES LAKE     75  50  81  52  86  56 /  10  10   0  10  10  10
WENATCHEE      76  55  81  58  85  61 /  10  10   0  10  10  10
OMAK           74  49  79  52  86  54 /  10  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
544 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2009

IDZ001>004-026-027-WAZ031>038-041>044-091245-
NORTHERN PANHANDLE-COEUR DALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-LEWISTON AREA-
LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS-
LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-
MOSES LAKE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-SPOKANE AREA-
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-WENATCHEE AREA-
EAST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES-OKANOGAN VALLEY-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-
544 AM PDT MON JUN 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH IDAHO...
NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO...CENTRAL WASHINGTON...EAST CENTRAL
WASHINGTON...NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON...NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.