Drought in Hawaii, November 1 to 30, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
815 PM HST SAT OCT 31 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL LAST ANOTHER 18 HOURS FOLLOW BY A
COLD FRONT USHERING IN SOME WET AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE STATE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK BUT THE COOLER WEATHER IS HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE MORE THAN A DAY LEFT OF THIS WARM AND DRY TRADE WIND
WEATHER. ALL COMPUTER FORECAST MODELS ARE LOCKED IN ON THE COLD
FRONT SLATED TO REACH THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE COLD FRONT IS THE SAME FRONT THAT
BRIEFLY TOUCHED KAUAI THURSDAY. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY RAGGED
LOOKING ON SATELLITE ABOUT 170 MILES WEST OF KAUAI. IT IS FORECAST
TO GET REJUVENATED BY ANOTHER EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY 470 MILES NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT. THE FRONTS MERGE AND
MOVE DOWN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS RATHER SLOWLY...REACHING KAUAI
COUNTY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY OAHU AROUND
MORNING RUSH HOUR TUESDAY...THEN ONWARD TO MAUI COUNTY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT LOOSES ITS PUNCH UPON
REACHING MAUI COUNTY. THE BIG ISLAND IS NEXT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SECOND BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVES
IN THURSDAY FROM THE NORTH BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH DRIER WEATHER
SLATED FOR THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE FRONTS/ SLOW MOVEMENT INCLUDING
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM ARE PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE SMALLER
ISLANDS.

THIS EVENING/S GFS SOLUTION APPEARS MORE IN TUNE WITH THE ECMWF AND
UKMET RUN OF LAST NIGHT WHERE THEY HAD THE DEEP SURFACE LOW NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. TO THE CONTRARY... THE
GFS HAD THE LOW PASSING NORTH AND WEST OF THE ISLANDS RESULTING IN
THE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND HENCE SOME UNSETTLE WEATHER. BUT
WITH THIS SCENARIO OF THE LOW STAYING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE DRIER.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS IN HANDLING THE LOW...WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WINDS IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY DATA SUPPORTS THE CONTINUATION OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST SURFACE LOW NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. A SIGNIFICANT NORTH SWELL
GENERATED BY THIS LOW MAY AFFECT THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND
KAUAI  AND OAHU UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF MOLOKAI AND MAUI
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

&&

H LAU