Heavy Rain in Georgia, May 27, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1012 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF WAS ANALYZED OVER THE AREA AT 00Z...AND
WILL TRACK NE OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE IS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING. AT THE SFC...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS
ANALYZED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT STILL WELL
WEST OF THE AREA NEAR THE MS RIVER. THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO
W/SWLY...AND UPSTREAM RAOBS SHOW A LITTLE DRIER AIR THAT WILL REACH
THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL
SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER (MAINLY MID-UPR CLOUDS). IF THE CLOUDS
CAN THIN OUT ENUF...I THINK THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...EXPECTING MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LITTLE CHANGE
NEEDED TO THE FCST FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH MIDDLE KY AND TN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CAPE VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHRA AND TSRA ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA BY 18Z AND INCREASE DURING THE REST
OF THE DAY TIME. I WILL FORECAST LIKELY COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS WITH
CHC COVERAGE EAST. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONGER THAN THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN THE GREATER LLVL INSTABILITY AND INCREASED
MID LEVEL DRY AIR. THESE STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM 4-6
DEGREES ABOVE TODAY/S VALUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVE IN
FROM THE NW THU NIGHT AND PUSH THRU THE CWA FRI. WITH H85 FLOW MORE
WLY MOISTURE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DEEP AS RECENT DAYS BUT THERE
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH FOR CHANCE SHWRS/TSTMS. SYSTEM MOVES E OF
AREA FRI NIGHT AND DEEP DRYING IS EXPECTED THRU SAT AS WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER AREA. ABOVE AVG TEMPS WILL CONT FRI. AS FRONT MOVES SE
OF AREA SAT...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEG COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM WEDNESDAY...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER E US SAT NIGHT-SUN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH H5 ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING FOR SUN
NIGHT-WED. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE
N CWA SUN AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO MAINLY THE NC
MTNS. WEAK HI PRES RIDGES INTO CWA FROM THE E MON-WED WITH MOIST S
FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. LOOK FOR
TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM COVERAGE SHUD CONTINUE A DECREASING TREND THIS
EVENING...AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS NW OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE HAS COME IN
WITH DIFFERENT PICTURES OF WHAT RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. ONE
HAS MORE OF A STRATUS EVENT...ANOTHER FOG...TWO OTHERS THAT DISAGREE
ON WHERE THE BIGGER THREATS ARE. WITH ALL THAT SAID...I DID NOT MAKE
MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREV TAFS FOR 00Z ISSUANCE. TRENDS ARE FOR LESS
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS (MORE FOG POTENTIAL). OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT
PERSISTENCE WHICH IS WHAT WE ARE GOING FOR AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND GROUND FROM ALL THIS RAIN WE/VE
RECEIVED...MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE QUITE LIKELY. THE DETAILS
ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN.

CLOUDS/FOG SCATTERS OUT AFTER SUNRISE IN INCREASING SWLY WINDS
THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FAIRLY GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN. I/VE ADDED CB
TO THE LAST GROUPS IN ALL THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE CHC OF SHWR/TSTM
IMPACTS.

AT KCLT...A FEW SHWRS WERE SEEN ON RADAR AS OF 2330Z TO THE SW OF
THE TERMINAL. I HAVE KEPT A VCSH MENTION THRU THE EVENING. OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SHWRS SHUD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS WILL START
OUT VFR EARLY THIS EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND
SFC...EXPECT CLOUDS/FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK WITHIN IFR LEVELS WITH MVFR TO VFR FOG DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE...FOG AND CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE...POSSIBLY
RETURNING TO VFR BY 14Z. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SSW DIRECTION BETWEEN
4-7 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING SW DURING THE
LATE MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACRS
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTN. I/VE ADDED A CB MENTION TO REFLECT THE CHC
OF IMPACTS AT THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
FOG AND CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL REMAIN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA AND TSRA CHC
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

GAZ010-017-NCZ062>065-501>510-SCZ001-002-004-005-281930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
320 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-068>072-082-SCZ003-
006>014-019-281930-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-
YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
320 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN VERY MOIST
AIR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS IS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.