Flash Flood and Hail in Arkansas, May 27, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1039 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

.UPDATE...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO EXTREME WEST
ARKANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
BUT MORE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND EAST SECTIONS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP IN MOST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST HOWEVER...WILL NOT RISE MUCH WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH THAT AREA. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. LOWER DEW
POINTS WILL BE DELAYED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT AREA WIDE TODAY. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE NOTED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
OKLAHOMA. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WILL BE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEHIND IT.
LOWER CEILINGS WILL COME BACK IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AS AN
UPPER WAVE SWEEPS IN BEHIND IT. TAFS ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2009/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI
THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND DOWN INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND HAD MOVED
INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE STATE.

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS
MISSOURI AND INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...SO KEPT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION...WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...AND A WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY LATE MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN FIVE DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     85  59  78  57 /  40  40  30  20
CAMDEN AR         86  59  81  57 /  40  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       79  53  74  54 /  40  30  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  57  79  56 /  40  30  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  86  60  80  59 /  40  40  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     88  62  82  60 /  40  40  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      82  55  78  54 /  40  30  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  81  56  75  55 /  40  30  30  20
NEWPORT AR        86  61  79  60 /  40  40  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     87  62  81  60 /  40  40  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   81  56  77  55 /  40  30  20  10
SEARCY AR         86  60  79  59 /  40  40  20  20
STUTTGART AR      87  63  80  62 /  40  40  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
215 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-281000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
215 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO
POP UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS...OR EAST
OF YELLVILLE...MORRILTON AND GLENWOOD. PRECIPITATION WAS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

STORMS WERE BUILDING IN A VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. AT 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FUEL TO FEED DEVELOPING STORMS...AND SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND PENNY SIZE
HAIL OR LARGER ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

GIVEN A LOT OF WATER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS. LOCALLY MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN COULD OCCUR IN
LESS THAN AN HOUR...WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. A SYSTEM ALOFT
WILL SWING THROUGH ARKANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE STATE FROM THE PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

57/46