High Wind in Georgia, December 9, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
830 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
STATES BY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LOWS WILL THEN KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
I WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE NC MTNS THROUGH 10 AM.

70 KT 85H SSW JET TO CONTINUE TRANSLATING ENE ACRS THE CWFA THROUGH
MID-MORNING...ERODING SHALLOW WEDGE. ROUGHLY COINCIDENT IS THE
DOWNSTREAM TRANSLATION OF LLVL FRONTAL BAND MOISTURE AND THE
REDUCTION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW IN WAKE OF FROPA. WITH THE IMPINGEMENT OF
DEEP DRYING LAYER TODAY...CLEARING SKIES WILL PROMOTE RATHER DEEP
MIXING. THE 00 UTC NAM BUFKIT IS INDICATED AN INCREASE IN LLVL
CAPE AND GIVING THE POTENTIAL OF TAPPING 50-60 KT WIND GUSTS ATOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM SFC PRESSURE
RISES...3-4MB/3 HR...AS PER LATEST NAM...ALL UNDERNEATH A VERY
ROBUST 100 KT 70H JET. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THIS STRONG WIND GUST
POTENTIAL IS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING A HEAVY RAIN EVENT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED UPROOTED TREES IS HIGH. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE UPGRADED HIGH WIND WATCH AREA TO A WARNING FOR
THE SAME VALID TIME.

UNDER FAIR SKIES...THE WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT LINGERS INTO TONIGHT
SETTING US UP FOR A BLUSTERY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT. A PERIOD
OF WESTERLY UPSLOPE COULD RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES ACRS THE NW
NC MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS WILL HELP TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 50 OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND THE
L50S OVER THE PIEDMONT WHILE THE MTNS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE L40S IN
THE LOWER VALLEYS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY AND AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25
PERCENT...AND POSSIBLY LOWER.

THE HIGH BE DIRECTLY OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A COLD FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS MTNS TO L-M20S
MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER IN SOME OF THE
THERMAL BELT AREAS OF THE UPSTATE. CONSIDERING THE ARCTIC NATURE OF
THE HIGH...THESE MIN TEMPS MAY PROVE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND TEMPS WON/T MAKE
IT OUT OF THE 40S OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AND THE 30S IN THE
MTNS.

STRONGLY CONFLUENT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A 190+ KT
JET OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY. THE JET WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS STILL GOOD FORCING FOR
MAINTAINING THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE SRN STREAM
IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF QPF...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IT DOES MAKE SENSE THAT
WITH A STRONG HIGH...MOST OF THE PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND COASTAL LOCATIONS. SO I THINK WE WILL MAINLY BE DEALING
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINTRY WX AT BEST ON SAT. AS FOR THE PCPN
TYPE...USING THE WX FROM NOMOGRAM TOOL...I GET A MIX OF
EVERYTHING...BUT WITH A TREND OF MORE SNOW EARLY IN THE DAY...AND
MORE OF AN ICY MIX LATER ON AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS
THE REGION SOMETIME ON SUNDAY. WHEN DEALING WITH A FAST SOUTHERN
STREAM AND SUBTLE FEATURES THAT ARE STILL HALF WAY ACROSS THE
PACIFIC...TIMING IS IMPOSSIBLE. BUT...LOOKING AT THE LATEST EC AND
GFS...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT A SECOND ROUND OF FORCING MAY
RESULT IN PCPN OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS BATCH MAY BE A
LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THOUGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN ON SATURDAY. THAT SAID...I/M KEEPING SUNDAY
DRY...ALBEIT CLOUDY...AS I DON/T WANT TO FLIP-FLOP ON THE FORECAST.
MONDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING A DRY DAY...THOUGH
THERE REMAINS A HINT OF COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE REGION...AND WE
MAY NOT CLEAR UP. ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE REGION ON TUE-TUE NIGHT.
THE LATEST EC AND GFS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE WAVE...BUT THEIR
TIMING IS FAIRLY SIMILAR. IT/S LOOKING MORE LIKE AN ALL RAIN EVENT
AS LLVL TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH WARMER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. I/LL
KEEP A LITTLE MIX IN THE MTNS...BUT I WON/T EXPAND THE WINTRY PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SOLID FRONTAL BAND DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR THE
TERMINAL SHORTLY AND SSE WINDS SHOULD RESUME AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. NAM BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATE A GRADUAL VEERING OF THE WIND
TO SW...BUT NOT BECOMING UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY UNTIL SFC BASED
INVERSION ERODES. GUSTY SW WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...
BUT DIMINISHING GUSTINESS WITH LOSS OF HTG THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA...VARYING DEGREES OF CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE SEEN AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. INCREASINGLY GUSTY WSW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE FA INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE ACRS THE MTNS INTO TONIGHT

OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A GULF COAST STORM
SYSTEM COULD SPREAD LIGHT MIXED PRECIP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035-036-
     052-053-056-059-062>065-068-069-501>510.
SC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ002-003-
     005>008.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MCAVOY
NEAR TERM...NED/CSH
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
834 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-037-048>051-057-058-070>072-082-
SCZ001-004-009>014-019-101345-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-DAVIE-MADISON-
YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-ROWAN-GRAHAM-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
834 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY OBSERVATIONS OF HIGH WINDS AND/OR
WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ035-036-052-053-056-059-062>065-068-069-501>510-SCZ002-003-
005>008-101345-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-
834 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY OBSERVATIONS OF HIGH WINDS AND/OR
WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
544 AM EST WED DEC 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 N GREENWOOD           34.23N 82.15W
12/09/2009  E65 MPH          GREENWOOD          SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS LIMBS DOWN

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 AM EST WED DEC 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST LAURENS                 34.50N 82.03W
12/09/2009  M85 MPH          LAURENS            SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NO DAMAGE NOTED. THIS WAS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS
            ASSOCIATED WITH A GRAVITY WAVE IN THE COLD POOL.

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 AM EST WED DEC 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N CROSS HILL          34.32N 81.98W
12/09/2009                   LAURENS            SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ONE MOBILE HOME BLOWN OVER ON LIBERTY SPRINGS RD. NO
            INJURIES. OTHER MOBILE HOMES LIFTED OFF THEIR FOUNDATIONS
            ON BILLY LEOPARD RD.

0527 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE GREENWOOD         34.22N 82.14W
12/09/2009                   GREENWOOD          SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN...MAINLY NORTH AND
            NORTHEAST OF GREENWOOD. ALSO A TREE THROUGH A HOUSE ON
            HALTIWANGER RD.

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
646 AM EST WED DEC 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ABBEVILLE               34.18N 82.38W
12/09/2009                   ABBEVILLE          SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN IN AND AROUND THE CITY. 1 TREE
            BLOWN ONTO A HOUSE.

&&

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
724 AM EST WED DEC 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CROSS HILL              34.30N 81.98W
12/09/2009                   LAURENS            SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON SPRING ST. TRAMPOLINES BLOWN OVER
            AND DEBRIS EVERYWHERE.

&&

RWH