Hail in Georgia, April 6, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH COOLER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WEAKEN THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY
AND CROSSES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
00 UTC FFC SOUNDING SHOWED A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM
ABOUT 660 MB TO 400 MB. THE AIRMASS UNDER THIS LAYER WAS QUITE MOIST
WITH H8 DEWPOINTS OF +14 DEG C. LIFTING FROM THAT LAYER YIELDS ABOUT
1200 J/KG OF CAPE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
FORM OVER NE GA. THE 00 UTC HAND ANALYSIS SHOWED ABOUT 35 KTS OF
WIND AT H8. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THIS LAYER OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...INCREASING THE LLVL LIFTING AND FAVORING A
MODEST AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. I/M NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE...BUT I DO THINK A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE DISCRETE CELLS WILL AFFECT THE UPSTATE AND NE GA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. BY THIS TIME THE MID LEVEL CAP WILL BE WELL
EAST OF THE REGION...FAVORING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. OUR PRESENT POP TRENDS HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND...SO I WON/T
CHANGE MUCH...THOUGH I MAY TAILOR THE WORDING IN THE HWO TO MENTION
ELEVATED HAIL CORES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...TO JAMES BAY LATE
TUESDAY...THEN WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... REACHING THE COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REACH THE TN VALLEY BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE TN
BORDER MONDAY EVENING...IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH  A LARGE
FETCH OF MOISTURE...AND UP TO 35 KNOTS OF ALMOST PURE NW FLOW...QPF
SHOULD SUPPOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW ALONG THE TN BORDER...ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS OF ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEAR LIMITED TO
THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS...MAINLY TONIGHT WITH THE BEST DOWNWARD
VERTICAL MOTION...ALTHOUGH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
TUESDAY.

THE SNOW EVENT COMES TO AN ABRUPT END WED MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST... MOISTURE DECREASES...AND TEMPERATURES WARM TO
NEAR ZERO. CLOUD COVER WANES ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SETS UP OVER A WARM FRONT TO
THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...AROUND MID FEBRUARY
CLIMATOLOGY...WARMING TO EARLY MARCH CLIMATOLOGY BY WEDNESDAY.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...AND AROUND 30 TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FROST TONIGHT...BUT A FREEZE WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...THE CLUSTER OF MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE ECMWF AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS WRT TO THE NEXT S/W
AFFECTING THE REGION FRI/SAT. THE GFS H5 ENS MEAN DOES HAVE VERY
GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE NCEP ENS MEAN...YET THE GGEM/NOGAPS/CMC FAVOR
A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY SOLN WITH THE PROGRESSIVE S/W PATTERN.
SO...WILL WEIGHT THE FCST ALONG WITH HPC GUIDANCE WHICH INCREASINGLY
INCORPORATES MORE OF THE ECMWF IDEA AFTER DAY 4.

THU SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS...GENERALLY CI DOWN TO ACU AS A
DIRTY RIDGE TRAVERSES THE SE REGION. SUSTAINED AND DEEP SW FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE AND WILL GO CLOSE TO
MEXMOS HIGHS ENABLING TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY A CAT OR SO. THE
FASTER GFS BRINGS IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND H85 GOM MOISTURE ABOUT 6
HRS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF FRI...HOWEVER THE RESPECTIVE MASS FIELDS
APPEAR RATHER SIMILAR IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. WONT COUNT ON MUCH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. EVEN THE DEEPER
GFS HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ENHANCEMENT...WITH AROUND 1 PVU
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE. THE ECMWF HAS NONE OF THIS AND
KEEPS THE DEEP FORCING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SBCAPE
DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR TO CONTEMPLATE A
STRONG/SEVERE TS SETUP. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE LLVL
CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH THE AVAILABLE INSOL. ANYWAY...THE LIKELY TS
ACROSS THE MTNS AND SCT TS COVERAGE ACROSS THE NON/MTNS STILL LOOKS
GOOD. EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PULL OUT OF CWFA FRI NIGHT WITH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE NC MTNS THROUGH SAT. NO
CONCERN IS HAD FOR WINTRY PRECIP AS H85 TEMPS STAY WELL ABOVE ZERO
NORTH INTO THE GL REGION. WILL EXPECT A CP AIRMASS MIXING INTO THE
AREA LATE SAT AND SLOWLY MODIFING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXT
PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO AROUND NORMAL OR
EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AS WINDS REALLY DONT SHIFT NRLY UNTIL EARLY
SUN AND VERY GOOD INSOLATION IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME MEASURE OF
DOWNSLOPE WARMING SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD GRADUALLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NW
PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT HOUR BY 07Z OR THEREABOUTS. WHAT REMAINS TO
BE SEEN IS HOW FAR TO THE NE THE IFR CEILINGS WILL MAKE IT. FOR
NOW...WILL BRING IFR INTO KGSP/KGMU BUT LEAVE THE NC TAFS OUT UNTIL
IT BECOMES CLEARER THAT IT WILL INVADE THAT FAR. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY FROM THE S OR SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HANDLED MOST OF THE
PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH VCSH AND WILL AMEND WHERE NECESSARY TO DEAL
WITH ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIP THAT THREATENS A TAF SITE. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS IN THE 09Z TO 13Z TIME
FRAME WHICH WILL BRING THE WIND AROUND TO WESTERLY. HAVE LEFT MVFR
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WHEN MODELS MOVE THE DRY SLOT
ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS SHOULD POP UP TO VFR BY MID MORNING AND
THEN SCATTER OUT IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THE
MAIN PROBLEM DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE STRONG WESTERLY GUSTS.
EXPECT A RETURN TO A VFR CEILING AFTER SUNSET AS A SHORT WAVE BRINGS
DEEPER MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ALONG THE TN BORDER DUE
TO NW FLOW UPSLOPE...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT OUT OF KAVL.

AT KCLT...KEPT IFR CEILING OUT OF TAF BUT IT IS WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES UNTIL SUNRISE. WIND SHOULD HAVE A SOUTH COMPONENT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH DIRECTION WILL BE ALMOST DUE WEST.
WENT WITH 280 DEGREES AT THIS TIME BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON TUE AT KAVL AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES ON TUE. FAIR WX
IS EXPECTED WED AND THU. CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON FRI AHEAD OF A LOW THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR NCZ033-048>052-058.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RB
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-061900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
252 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IF THE INSTABILITY IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY ACROSS
THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BUT CLOUDINESS AND A NORTHWEST
BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. THE COLD AIR WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE PIEDMONT WILL DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...A FREEZE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT STRONG AND/OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TONIGHT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ033-048>052-058-061900-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
252 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT STRONG AND/OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TONIGHT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ053-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-061900-
BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
252 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED UP AND OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
BY A STRONG AND COLD NORTHWEST WIND BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS
TEMPERATURES DROP...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP FROM AROUND FIVE THOUSAND FEET AT
NOON TO THREE THOUSAND FEET BY SUNSET MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW
SHOULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AND WILL NOT TAPER OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER BEFORE IT ALL ENDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT STRONG AND/OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TONIGHT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
936 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2009

GAZ026-060215-
FRANKLIN-
936 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN COUNTY THROUGH 1015 PM
EDT...

AT 934 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF CARNESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CANON BY 950 PM EDT.
  LAVONIA BY 955 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
958 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2009

GAZ028-SCZ010-060230-
ANDERSON-HART-
958 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ANDERSON AND
NORTHEASTERN HART COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM EDT...

AT 956 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF REED CREEK...OR 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HARTWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SANDY SPRINGS BY 1010 PM EDT.
  ANDERSON BY 1015 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

NED