Hail in Georgia, April 23, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 PM EDT THU APR 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO
THE WEEKEND. MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST OFF THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
OVER GA WILL MOVE NORTH INTO OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST IN THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY UNTIL HEATING ENDS. LIMITED CLOUD COVER
SPREADS EAST TO THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RAISED...PARTIALLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER...AND ALSO FOR RISING DEW
POINTS AND HEIGHTS ALOFT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE
WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SET UP. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...IN DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM THURSDAY...THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AS UPPER
RIDGING HOLDS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A SURFACE HIGH RIDGES IN FROM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF THERE IS AN ISSUE
WITH THE FORECAST...IT WOULD BE CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW WEAK BUOYANCY DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND RESPOND WITH SOME
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COULD
PROVIDE A TRIGGER SO A SLIGHT CHANCE SEEMS APPROPRIATE. WILL KEEP
THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE MTNS DRY FOR THE TIME BEING...AS SHOWN BY THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. DRIER AIR AT LOW LEVELS ON SUNDAY WILL LIMIT
BUOYANCY EVEN MORE...SO SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY. TEMPS WERE NUDGED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...INDICATIONS ARE THAT DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY FLATTENS OUT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING LOW PRESSURE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND
PUSH A FRONT TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
FRONT TO THE WEST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS IT OVER
THE MTNS BY THEN. A COMPROMISE KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE MTNS.
FROM THAT POINT ONWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THINGS
LOOK MORE UNSETTLED. A WEAK FRONT WILL BE NEARBY DEPENDING ON WHICH
MODEL IS CORRECT AND MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER. WITHOUT MUCH TO
DISCOURAGE CONVECTION...SOMETHING CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY IS PROBABLY
THE BEST BET. THAT MEANS DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM
REASONABLE SO A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCLT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GUSTY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY EVENING...WHEN A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS EAST OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT ARRIVE...AND
THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK FRONT. BLENDED
NAM AND ADJUSTED MAV WIND FIELDS SUPPORT LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
LATE TONIGHT. BY MID MORNING FRIDAY SOUTH WINDS AT 5 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE.

FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA FROM GA TONIGHT...WHILE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL DATA AND MET GUIDANCE SUPPORT LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS LATE TONIGHT. AT MID MORNING FRIDAY WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND 5 MPH...AND THE BULK OF THE CUMULUS FIELD SHIFTS
EAST...LEAVING SCATTERED MID CLOUDS.

KAVL...ISOLATED CUMULUS AND SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...WHILE NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. WINDS BECOMES SOUTH AT 5 KNOTS
FRIDAY MORNING WITH CUMULUS BECOMING SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK...UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER REGION THRU SAT...MOVG OFF E
COAST FOR NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH MOVES OFF E COAST SAT WITH MOIST S
FLOW DEVELOPING. EARLY MRNG FOG PSBL WITH ISOLD AFTN SHWRS OVER MTNS
THRU WKND. DRY RIDGE OVER ARE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR WESTERN NC
DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA...EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT
FIRE WEATHER...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
703 PM EDT THU APR 23 2009

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-052-053-056-057-059-063>065-068>072-082-
501>510-SCZ001>014-019-242315-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
703 PM EDT THU APR 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-058-062-242315-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-SWAIN-GRAHAM-MACON-
703 PM EDT THU APR 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING IN
EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA. BEFORE THEN...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
542 PM EDT THU APR 23 2009

GAZ017-232215-
HABERSHAM-
542 PM EDT THU APR 23 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN HABERSHAM COUNTY
THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 539 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF CLEVELAND...OR 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CLARKESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOUNT
  AIRY...CORNELIA AND BALDWIN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. ALSO...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 PM EDT THU APR 23 2009

GAZ017-232330-
HABERSHAM-
658 PM EDT THU APR 23 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HABERSHAM COUNTY
THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 657 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALTO...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CLARKESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOUNT
  AIRY...DEMOREST...CORNELIA AND BALDWIN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. ALSO...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

ARK