Rip Current in Florida, October 11, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
943 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2009

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE AREA SHOWS MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SW WITH DRIER AIR FURTHER N OVER NE GA AND SC
MOVING NEWD. A HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT NOTED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
YET THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
FORCING. THE MEAN 1000-500 MB RIDGE IS NOTED PER RUC ANALYSIS
OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO CENTRAL FL TO THE BAHAMAS.
AT SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING
THROUGH OUR SE GA WATERS AND TO ABOUT LIVE OAK TO THE FL PANHANDLE
WATERS. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AND SEA BREEZES WILL ALSO HELP
TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO SHIFT
MAYBE A BIT FURTHER S THIS MORNING BUT THEN BECOME STATIONARY AS
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE FRONT WEAKENS AND HEIGHTS
GENERALLY RISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT INSTABILITY...12Z
JAX SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE ISNT LACKING WITH PWAT OF 1.86 INCHES
AND MODIFIED CAPE OF 2000-2500J/KG AND LI OF -4. STILL SOME DRY
LAYERS FROM 750 MB TO 400 MB WILL HELP LIMIT COVERAGE TODAY.
BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE AND SHORT RANGE MODELS...WILL DECREASE POPS
A BIT OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND LOWER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS
WELL. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS INLAND AREAS FROM
GNV TO SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA. THERE ALSO MAY SOME SLIGHT ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER SE GA N OF THE FRONT LATER THIS MORNING. SCT CONVECTION
CURRENTLY WELL OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE UNDER THE
PREVAILING 0-6 KM WSW WINDS AT ABOUT 15 KT. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP
1-2 DEG AS WELL WITH STRATUS AND FOG VERY LIMITED THIS MORNING
PRODUCING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS OVER MOST OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY VFR AT TERMINALS AND SHOULD PREVAIL VFR
REST OF TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS CUMULUS DEVELOP BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO
INCLUDE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WITH CHANCE POPS...VCTS WILL SUFFICE FOR
NOW. WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MVFR VIS/CIG WOULD
BE A GOOD BET DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.

&&

.MARINE...THE FRONT BISECTS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS N OF THE
FRONT ARE ABOUT 10-15 KT IN SE GA AND S OF FRONT NW-W NEAR 10 KT.
SEAS NEAR 2-3 FT WITH SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL NEAR 11 SECONDS. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SHOWING WIND SHIFTS AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  67  84  67 /  50  30  50  30
SSI  83  73  83  72 /  40  40  40  20
JAX  87  72  87  71 /  40  30  30  10
SGJ  87  76  86  73 /  30  30  20  10
GNV  90  70  90  70 /  40  20  30  10
OCF  91  71  91  71 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHASHY/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1045 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-121000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1045 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

INCREASED SWELLS AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED
RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT INTERACTS WITH SEA BREEZES.
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAINLY ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AROUND 10 MPH.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. AREAS OF FOG ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE. VISIBILITIES MAY FALL
BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
THIS FRONT MAY BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI/SHASHY