Tornado and Lightning Strike in Florida, July 15, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH TONIGHT...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED AND DRIFTING
INLAND AT MID AFTERNOON. A FEW CELLS OCCURRING IN EC FL BUT LOCAL
WRF RUN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MAIN COLLISION BETWEEN E-W COAST
BOUNDARIES WILL BE WELL INLAND IN EC FL LATE AFTN. A FEW EVENING
CELLS DRIFTING BACK TOWARD NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS.

THURS...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH COASTS AND DRIFTING INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH SCT COVERAGE 40 PERCENT ALL
AREAS. POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS WILL ALLOW A LITTLE MORE DRIFT BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS VERSUS
SOUTH. MAX TEMPS A TAD HIGHER NRN COAST VERSUS SOUTH WITH EARLIER
SEA BREEZE ONSET HEADING SOUTH.

FRI...SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
PUSH SOUTH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. SEA BREEZE MAY STALL NORTH OF THE CAPE DUE TO STRONGER LOW
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WHILE FARTHER SOUTH SHOULD SEE GREATER INLAND
MOVEMENT. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL EXIST WHICH WILL PUSH STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE EAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SAT-WED...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. ADDITIONALLY...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND AND BECOME
STATIONARY NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DOMINANT W/SW
FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD DELAY THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AND FOCUS CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS...MORE
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...1.6 TO 1.7...WILL PRODUCE NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES OF 30-50% EACH DAY.

THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BUILDING STRONG UPPER RIDGE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLC WHICH STEERS AN EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS FL
MIDWEEK BRINGING ENHANCED RAINFALL CHANCES. BUT THE 00Z ECMWF
REMAINS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND PULLING THE EASTERLY WAVE N/NW EAST OF
FLORIDA...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST PCPN OVER THE ATLC.

&&

.AVIATION...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING WELL INLAND...REDUCTIONS IN
TSRA ISOLD FROM KDAB-KTIX THROUGH 20Z...THEN TEMPO MVFR/LCL IFR
SHIFTING INLAND AFT 20Z THROUGH 16/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY-FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE S/SW FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH WIND
SPEEDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS OFFSHORE. SEA WILL RESIDE AOB 3 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  74  92 /  20  30  20  40
MCO  76  93  75  93 /  20  40  20  40
MLB  75  90  75  92 /  10  40  20  40
VRB  75  89  74  92 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GLITTO
LONG TERM....WEITLICH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
603 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-152215-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
603 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
EARLY TODAY AND MERGE OVER THE INTERIOR PENINSULA DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...RESULTING IN SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.  THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL
BE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. SEEK STURDY SHELTER WELL IN ADVANCE OF THREATENING WEATHER.
DEADLY LIGHTNING OFTEN STRIKES WELL OUTSIDE THE RAIN SHAFT OF A
THUNDERSTORM.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTESTATE FOUR AS
WELL WEST OF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR IN LOCAL SPOTS. STANDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL PRESENT A DRIVING HAZARD.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...SCATTERED STORMS MAY MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD GENERATE
LOCAL STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ROUGH SEAS...ALONG WITH DEADLY CLOUD
TO WATER LIGHTNING. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING STORMS. SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WELL
INLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS...AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
STORM THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

BRAGAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
541 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

FLZ053-152230-
OSCEOLA-
541 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY...

AT 540 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG STORM OVER KENANSVILLE...DRIFTING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. THESE
STORMS WILL AFFECT PERSONS DRIVING ON THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AND STATE
ROAD 441.

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...WHICH MAY CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL...PEA TO DIME SIZE...WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
650 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

FLZ045-152330-
ORANGE-
650 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 648 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG STORMS ALONG HIGHWAY 441 FROM DOWNTOWN ORLANDO TO THE
OSCEOLA COUNTY LINE. THE LINE WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STRONG STORMS INCLUDE BELLE ISLE...
DOCTOR PHILLIPS...ORLOVISTA AND PINE CASTLE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...WHICH MAY CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL
HAIL...PEA TO DIME SIZE...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD WAS SIGHTED BY A MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 4
WITH THESE STORMS.