Rip Current in Florida, December 13, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
948 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2009

.UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A DRYING TREND IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. THERE IS AN INVERSION IN
THE LOWER LEVELS THAT SHOULD HELP TO HINDER ANY CHANCES OF
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

THE SHORT TERM WIND FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO BE MORE CONSISTENT
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. THIS HAD AN IMPACT ON THE EXPECTED MARINE CONDITIONS AND
THE SHORT TERM MARINE FORECAST WAS UPDATED AS WELL...IN GENERAL A
DECREASE IN THE LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2009/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2009/

.RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY...
.HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S TODAY...

DISCUSSION...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT BEEN HANGING AROUND SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS MOVED NORTH TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS MORNING ALLOWING
FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO BUILD WEST
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OVER CUBA WILL ALSO BUILD NORTH INTO THE CWA TODAY. THESE TWO
HIGHS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DRY OUT AND KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY TODAY OVER THE CWA. SO THE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PALM
BEACH COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SHOULD THIS MORNING
AND REMAIN DRY REST OF DAY HOURS...WHILE REST OF THE CWA WILL
REMAIN DRY.

BOTH SURFACE HIGH AND THE MID TO UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE GETTING PUSH SOUTH ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...ALONG WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MORE ON THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

FOG FORMATION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AS SHERIFF OFFICES IN
THESE AREAS HAVE REPORTED VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO LESS THAN
1 QUARTER OF A MILE IN THE FOG. SO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 9
AM EST THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS SHOULD ALSO SEE FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
REMAIN ABOVE THE 1/4 OF A MILE IN THE FOG.

FOG FORMATION IS AGAIN EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
ALONG WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. VISIBILITIES IN THE
FOG COULD APPROACH ONE QUARTER OF A MILE IN THE INTERIOR AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SO WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO MORNING PACKAGE.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE COLD FRONT MENTION IN THE SHORT TERM ABOVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND STALLING OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS LATE THIS WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THESE TWO
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WITH BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHEAST CONDITIONS
OVER THE CWA...AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME. SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE CWA LATE THIS WEEK...WITH CHANCE CAT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO FORM ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT LATE THIS WEEK PUSHING ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH OVER RUNNING MOISTURE
AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE CWA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS HAVE
DECREASED TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE EASTERLY
DIRECTION...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY
TONIGHT. THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS WILL THEN REMAIN
BELOW 10 KNOTS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SWINGING SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET TODAY
INTO TUESDAY. SO HAVE REMOVED THE SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC AND
BISCAYNE WATERS.

THE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL ALSO
REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS TODAY INTO TUESDAY SWINGING SLOWLY FROM A
EASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY. THE
GULF STREAM SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
SO NO HEADLINES FOR THE GULF WATERS OR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL
VALUE TODAY INTO MONDAY. SO NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCTS EXCEPT FOR THE FOG FORMATION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABLE TO GET UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S...AND ON MONDAY BE ABLE TO GET UP INTO THE MID 80S.
THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGHS FOR
THESE DAYS WHICH ARE:

                  SUNDAY          SUNDAY           MONDAY          MONDAY
                 12/13/09        12/13/09         12/14/09       12/14/09
CITIES        FORECAST HIGHS    RECORD HIGHS   FORECAST HIGHS   RECORD HIGHS

MIAMI               87            89 - 1900          86          86 - 1900
MIAMI BEACH         84            85 - 1941          83          82 - 2007
FORT LAUDERDALE     86            87 - 1922          85          86 - 1922
WEST PALM BEACH     86            87 - 1941          84          87 - 1920
NAPLES              86            88 - 1972          86          89 - 1061
CLEWISTON           87            89 - 1986          86          90 - 1961
IMMOKALEE           89            86 - 1972          88          87 - 1972
DEVILS GARDEN       89            89 - 1961          87          87 - 1961
LA BELLE            89            89 - 1993          87          90 - 1993
BELLE GLADES        89            89 - 2000          86          87 - 1961

SO WILL MENTION NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND ON MONDAY FOR ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE AROUND 70 TODAY WHICH
WILL MAKE IT HEAT INDICES THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGHS WILL THEN START TO TAPER BACK TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WHICH IS IN THE MID 70S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  70  84  72 / 10 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  73  85  74 / 10 10 10 20
MIAMI            87  73  86  74 / 10 10 10 20
NAPLES           86  67  86  69 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...60/BD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...30/KOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1006 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-140615-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1006 AM EST SUN DEC 13 2009

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS, COMBINED
WITH LOW TIDE,  ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES OF PALM BEACH,
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.