NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 15, 10:57 AM EST, 2 hours 3 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 15, 10:57 AM EST, 2 hours 3 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1157 AM EDT WED APR 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMPLEX AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS
GRIP ON THE REGION FOR ONE MORE DAY AND COOL AND DAMP WEATHER ARE IN
STORE. THE LOW FINALLY DEPARTS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SLEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON OVER NRN NJ WITH THE ADVECTION OF
THE DRIER AIR INTO THE PCPN ALLOWING SOME EVAP COOLING TO CAUSE
THE SLEET. THEREFORE, FOR A COUPLE HRS WE ADDED THIS TO THE FCST.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS. THE
FORECAST DRY AIR FROM THE NE IS CURRENTLY SHOWING SIGNS OF
ADVANCING SW OVER THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED NE
AND CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING. FOLLOWING TRENDS, I EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT ALL AREAS EXCEPT SOUTH BY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TONIGHT THAT IT LOSES ITS GRIP
ON THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALSO STARTS TO BUILD DOWN FROM
CANADA. SO, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERALL. THE RAIN WILL COME TO
AN END AND THE SKY WILL CLEAR, PROBABLY FAIRLY RAPIDLY. WE WILL,
HOWEVER, BE STUCK WITH THE PERSISTENT NELY WIND FOR ANOTHER DAY.
BUT, WITH ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE, TEMPS WILL REBOUND AND APPROACH 60
DEGREES, WHICH WILL FEEL NICE AFTER TUESDAY AND TODAY, BUT NOT AS
WARM AS IT COULD BE IF THE NELY FLOW WERE NOT PRESENT. OVERALL, MOS
TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOTHER NATURE FINALLY LOOKS AT THE CALENDAR FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED FCST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA FOR
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE AMS WILL MODIFY AND AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE S AND E A SWLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 60S N AND 70S S AND WILL APPROACH 70 ACRS PHILLY METRO ON
FRIDAY. WITH THE STRONGER RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY, EXPECT TEMPS TO
MAKE IT INTO THE 70S ACRS MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT THE EXTREME N.
WITH THE HIGH PRETTY MUCH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, EXPECT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL.
BY SUNDAY, THE HIGH IS SHIFTED ENOUGH TO THE S AND E AND A COOL
FRONT ASSOCD WITH A LOW NR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MOVE THROUGH.
THIS FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS A FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. RAIN
SHUD DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY, FIRST WITH A WARM FRONT
THEN AS THE LOW ITSELF GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE LOW WILL
AFFECT THE WX FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, WITH RAIN CHCS
THRU TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO ERLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS SHUD BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL DURG THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
FOR KPHL, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT
1500Z. WITH A FAIRLY STIFF NORTHEAST WIND, THE VISIBILITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH, EXCEPT PERHAPS DURING BRIEF PERIODS WHEN THE
HEAVIER AREAS OF RAIN AFFECT THE AIRPORT. FOR MOST OF THE TIME, THE
VISIBILITY SHOULD BE 5 MILES OR GREATER. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM 1500Z UNTIL 2000Z, AT WHICH TIME KPHL SHOULD BE UP
INTO THE VFR RANGE. ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY END DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH THE SKY EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR BY 0300Z. THE NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT
THIS EVENING.
FOR OUR TAF SITES TO THE NORTH OF KPHL, NAMELY KABE, KRDG, KTTN AND
KPNE, THE TRENDS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE AT KPHL. HOWEVER, BEING
THAT THE DRY AIR AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL BE BUILDING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH, THE TRANSITION FROM IFR TO MVFR, AND FROM MVFR TO VFR,
SHOULD TAKE PLACE A LITTLE SOONER.
FOR KILG, KMIV AND KACY, THE TRENDS WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE AT
KPHL, WITH ANY IMPROVEMENT TAKING PLACE ANYWHERE FROM ONE TO THREE
HOURS LATER.
OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. RAIN MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION LATE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING,
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH SHOULD KEEP A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND OVER LOWER DELAWARE BAY FROM
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME, WE WILL FORECAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY.
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY, WIND SPEEDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN OUR REGION.
THE WEEKEND APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW ALONG THE COAST, WE WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP CLOSE WATCH ON TIDE LEVELS.
DURING THE HIGH TIDE THAT OCCURRED SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, TIDAL
DEPARTURES ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE WERE ABOUT 8
OR 9 TENTHS OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THAT WAS AROUND OR A LITTLE
MORE THAN A HALF FOOT ABOVE THE GFS GUIDANCE VALUES.
THE HIGH TIDE OF CONCERN IS THE ONE THAT OCCURS TONIGHT. THE GFS
GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING DEPARTURES OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THAT TIME. WE WOULD NEED A 2 FOOT DEPARTURE TO CREATE MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING AT OUR MOST SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS. EVEN IF WE ADJUST THE
GUIDANCE UPWARD BY A HALF FOOT BASED ON ITS PERFORMANCE DURING THE
MOST RECENT HIGH TIDE, WE WOULD STILL COME IN JUST BELOW THE LEVELS
NEEDED FOR MINOR FLOODING. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY. HOWEVER, BEING THAT CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE TOPIC IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
PRODUCT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.
&&
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DELISI/STAUBER
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...