Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in Arkansas, September 4 to 5, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
538 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2009

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE POP AND QPF GRIDS TO INDICATE THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. ONLY A FEW OTHER TWEAKS WERE
MADE FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ALREADY
SENT.

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY ONGOING ENDING ACROSS THE NORTH BY 02Z.
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SITES...AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE ADDED
VCSH AND PROB30 FOR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2009/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A
BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS ARKANSAS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST SOMEWHAT SUNDAY. HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM.

KLZK RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MUCH OF THE
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH ARKANSAS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...LIKELY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY BUT A DECREASE IS NOTICED FOR MONDAY. LOWER RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM...WITH NOTED DIFFERENCES BEYOND THIS FCST PD. AN UPPER
TROF WL RMN IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH MAINLY WDLY SCTD DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED.

WEAK RDG ALOFT WL BLD BRIEFING INTO THE MID SOUTH BY THU...BUT OPTED
TO LEAVE SLGT CHC POPS IN FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HRS FOR CONSISTENCY.
A NEW UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO WORK EWD FM THE NRN PLAINS AND THEN
TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE PD. THE WL ALLOW NWLY
FLOW ALOFT TO RETURN TO THE MID SOUTH...ALLOWING A NEW CDFNT FCST TO
APCH AR FM THE NW BY FRI. DUE TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE WITH THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...DECIDED TO STICK WITH PERSISTENCE
REGARDING POPS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RMN AT OR SLIGHTLY BLW NORMS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1255 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1255 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
MISSOURI THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTH HALF OF ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH LESSER RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING...DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS IN PLACE AND THE EXPECTED
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN.

THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...
A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...AGAIN WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE MID SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND...KEEPING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK WINDS ALOFT
AND HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE...COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BECOME STRONG OR  SEVERE.
HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEAKEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
506 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2009

ARZ004-042250-
MARION-
506 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MARION COUNTY UNTIL 550 PM CDT...

AT 504 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PYATT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
520 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2009

ARZ012-013-042320-
NEWTON-SEARCY-
520 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NEWTON AND SEARCY COUNTIES UNTIL 620
PM CDT...

AT 519 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR JASPER...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THE STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

59