Flooding in Arkansas, September 13 to 30, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
153 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SOME TOUGH FORECAST DECISIONS TO MAKE THIS CYCLE...AS IT IS
UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH RE DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT 6
TO 12 HOURS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EJECTING OFF THE GULF AND NORTH INTO LA. AND BASED
OFF SATELLITE IMAGERY...A LIMITED BREAK IN CLOUD COVER EXISTS OVER
THE FA. FOR THIS REASON...CANCELED THE FFA WITH THE BELIEF RAIN
WILL BE MAINLY STRATIFORM...WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. THE THREAT FOR
MINOR FLOODING STILL EXISTS...AS ANY CELL THAT DOES FORM WILL
BRING RAIN OVER SATURATED GROUND WHICH IN TURN COULD CAUSE SOME
PONDING OF WATER.

KEPT CHANCE/LIKELY POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS PESKY LOW LINGERS
OVER THE MID SOUTH. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCH AMOUNT WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WHERE THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL FALL IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. THE NAM DID NOT
INITIALIZE WELL THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIP POSITIONED MUCH FURTHER
NORTH THAN SHOWN. KEPT POPS AND QPF MORE GENERALIZED...WITH
EXPECTATION THAT IT WILL BE MORE FINE TUNED WITH LATER PRODUCT
ISSUANCE. BUT TO SUM THINGS UP...IT WILL BE A RAINY NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AND THE RE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED BEFORE THE STUBBORN UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT. MODELS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...KEEPING SOME FORM OF A
TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WHILE RIDGING GETS
REESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST. ECMWF SLOWER WITH THE EJECTION OF THE
UPPER LOW VERSUS THE GFS AND WITH SYSTEM REMAINING ISOLATED FROM THE
PREVAILING FLOW...SEEMS TO MAKE THE MOST SENSE. AS SUCH...WILL LEAN
HEAVILY TOWARDS THE ECMWF THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW STILL OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WHEN THE PERIOD INITIATES
WITH SURFACE REFLECTION JUST TO ITS SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE/STRENGTHENING TROF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
FINALLY PICKS UP THE LOW AND LIFTS IT NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK
SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY BUT NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES IN ITS
WAKE WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WITH SURFACE
FLOW CONTINUING FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST AND DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL UNDERCUT MAV/MEX NUMBERS A BIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     61  78  64  79 /  70  70  70  60
CAMDEN AR         67  79  69  80 /  70  70  70  50
HARRISON AR       57  76  61  78 /  70  70  70  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  78  68  78 /  70  70  70  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  79  67  80 /  70  70  70  50
MONTICELLO AR     67  81  68  81 /  80  70  70  50
MOUNT IDA AR      66  77  67  78 /  70  70  70  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  77  61  78 /  70  70  70  60
NEWPORT AR        62  78  64  80 /  70  70  70  60
PINE BLUFF AR     66  80  68  80 /  70  70  70  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  77  65  77 /  70  70  70  50
SEARCY AR         63  79  66  80 /  70  70  70  50
STUTTGART AR      65  80  67  80 /  70  70  70  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...61 / LONG TERM...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
115 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
115 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS TEXAS...BRINGING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
IN NATURE BUT POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY STABLE AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WHAT STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO GET GOING WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AS TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE.

WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS AND SOME WATER IS LIKELY TO POND ON AREA ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG. THE
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
AND THE ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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