Damaging Winds in Arkansas, July 11 to 12, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
855 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MO THIS
EVENING...MOVING SSE TOWARDS ARKANSAS. CURRENT TRENDS WILL KEEP
MOST ACTIVITY JUST EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CLOSE EYE
ON THE WESTERN EXTENT WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
ONGOING. CURRENT TRENDS WILL HAVE THE WESTERN EXTENT MOVING INTO
THE NE COUNTIES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND A MORE CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FURTHER SOUTH...STILL NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE SHORT TERM...AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009/

AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER HIGH AND COULD
BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF KLIT WITH THE
BEST CHANCES AT KBPK. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE PERIOD
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS WITH BASES OVER 5000
FEET EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
FLOW AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST FOR THE NATURAL STATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...LEFT OVER FROM MCS MOVING
THROUGH MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN IN THE
LOWER 90S IN THE NORTHEAST...TO NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
DEW POINTS REMAIN HIGH...AND SOME LOCATIONS HAVE COME CLOSE TO HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...IT HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD AND NOT EVERY
HOUR...SO HAVE ELECTED TO NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY. THIS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE THE CASE IN THE COMING DAYS.

ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN MISSOURI...AND WITH THE RIDGE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...RAINFALL WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO MOVE MORE INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGHER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. THE TREND OF PREVIOUS DAYS
WILL CONTINUE...WITH MCS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND LASTING INTO THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL HAVE A LARGE ROLE IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. FOR NOW...HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN TODAY...AND DEW POINTS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. WILL LET MID
SHIFT DECIDE ON ANY HEADLINES...AS RAINFALL MAY COOL HIGHS SLIGHTLY.

WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING...AND
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. THIS RAIN WILL MAINLY
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN TAKE HOLD AGAIN...WITH HOT CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY
BECOME NECESSARY FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX INDICES MAY BE EXCESSIVE...WITH VALUES
IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BETWEEN 105 AND 110
DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

IT APPEARS THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO CLOSE THE PERIOD.
CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE
STATE...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  93  74  94 /  30  30  20  20
CAMDEN AR         78  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       76  94  74  97 /  20  30  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  98  76  99 /  10  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  77  96  75  97 /  20  20  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     77  97  75  98 /  20  20  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      79  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  75  94  73  96 /  30  30  20  20
NEWPORT AR        75  93  73  94 /  30  30  20  30
PINE BLUFF AR     77  96  75  98 /  20  20  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   78  97  75  98 /  20  20  10  20
SEARCY AR         76  94  74  95 /  20  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      77  95  75  96 /  20  20  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1020 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-121000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1020 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE UP AND OVER A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY MORNING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES GENERALLY IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXCEED THE CRITICAL 105 DEGREE MARK...WITH
HEAT ADVISORIES POSSIBLY NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION.

SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST...AS A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ARKANSAS. WHERE STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. HOWEVER...NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER HIGH MAY WEAKEN AND SHIFT
WESTWARD LATE NEXT WEEK. IF THIS OCCURS...DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE FORM OF A COLD
FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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