Blizzard in Alaska, February 2, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON FEB 2 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NUMERICAL MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM. A
SLIGHT PREFERENCE WAS GIVEN TO THE GFS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
FORECAST. BY 00Z THURSDAY THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIFFER ON HOW TO
HANDLE THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF AS WELL AS LOCATION OF THE DEEP
LOW IN THE BERING SEA. THE MORNING FORECASTS REFLECT MORE OF A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL ALASKA THIS MORNING WITH
VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE STATE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. A TROUGH CONTINUES
SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ANOTHER LOW IS SITUATED AT 150
DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE 45 NORTH LATITUDE. A DEEP LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
KAMCHATKA WITH THE NOSE OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BETWEEN
THE MAIN LOWS. THE PATTERN IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE IN TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
CONTINUED PESKY SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE LOW OVER THE STATE.
THE KAMCHATKA LOW WILL DRIVE AGGRESSIVELY EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT
ESSENTIALLY WIPING OUT THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE
LEADING FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS
THE PENINSULA AND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

ZONAL FLOW WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND PUSH THE ALASKAN
LOW NORTHWARD. A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OFF THE
LEADING FRONT OF THE FORMER KAMCHATKA LOW BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE FULLY DOMINANT BY LATER IN THE WEEK. A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS ALASKA THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TIMING OF THESE LOWS WILL BE TRICKY THIS FAR OUT BUT EXPECT CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION MOST DAYS ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA FROM THURSDAY INTO
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ZONE 195 PRIBILOFS.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 130 172 175 176.
         GALE WARNING 132 170 171 179 185.
         HVY FRZ SPRY WRNG 120 121 125 129 130 132 138 140 141 150
                           155 160 165 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG FEB 09