Funnel Cloud in Alabama, April 19, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
408 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN
SOME ROTATION AND A FEW TORNADO WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...BUT SO
FAR ONLY ONE REPORT OF A WALL CLOUD WITH ONE OF THE EARLIER STORMS. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FCST AREA
(GENERALLY WEST OF I-65) UNTIL 9 PM. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING...AS THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO OUR MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATE EVENING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY THE EARLY PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY WITH
A COOLER AND DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. RAINFREE FCST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LITTLE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN WITH THAT...
SO LEFT ANY MENTION OF RAINFALL OUT FOR NOW. NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPS WILL COOL TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST. ONLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT EAST OF THE FCST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY
INCREASE. BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
ZONAL FLOW WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS
WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (18Z/00Z ISSUANCES)...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT UNTIL AROUND
04-06Z TONIGHT. VSBYS IN STORMS LOWERING TO IFR/POSSIBLY LIFR LEVELS
AT TIMES THIS EVENING. AFTER ABOUT 06Z IFR/MVRF CIGS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z MONDAY. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY THEN BECOME WEST AND GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME MOSTLY WEST AND BUILD BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. 32/EE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER...
TRAINING STORMS. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHEN AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP TO BELOW 30 PERCENT. WILL MONITOR FOR THE
NEED OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/WARNING FOR THOSE DAYS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  75  49  78 /  60  10  00  05
PENSACOLA   60  75  53  78 /  60  10  00  05
DESTIN      61  73  55  77 /  60  10  00  05
EVERGREEN   58  71  42  73 /  60  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  55  72  43  74 /  40  10  10  05
CAMDEN      57  71  42  72 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
440 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-202200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
440 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST AND A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS OVERTAKES THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES LATER THIS EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL BEGIN TO END.

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS WILL REMAIN NEAR FLOOD STAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

A FEW AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND SPOTTERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.