Hail in Wyoming, July 25, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
200 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH
A WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HILLS AND CENTRAL
WYOMING...OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH SOME BECOMING
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND WITH WINDS SHIFTING EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY CURRENTLY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS AS MOISTURE LEVELS ARE HIGH...HOWEVER THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DROPPED TO AROUND 100 PERCENT IN THE 18Z KRAP SOUNDING
AND STORM MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 KTS. STILL FEEL THIS
IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND ON AN INDIVIDUAL STORM BASIS BUT MAY
NOT BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
WITH LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AND HIGHER THETA-E PUSHING IN.

ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL WYOMING AND AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD AGAIN BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUNDAY...
BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS REMAIN AT
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EXTENDED...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE TOP OF A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
AROUND MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
520 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2008

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-261300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
520 AM MDT (620 AM CDT) FRI JUL 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONTAINING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE
IS ALSO THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. STAY TUNED TO LATER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.