Hail in Wyoming, July 17, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
250 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2008

.DISCUSSION...20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS
500-1000J/KG ML CAPE WITH A WEAK CAP. WV IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE KUNR FORECAST AREA
KEEPING A LID ON THE CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS...BUT SO FAR HAVE BEEN
UNABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THIS EVENING...AS WE MAY SEE A COUPLE OF STORMS MANAGE TO BREAK
THE CAP OVER THE PLAINS...BUT WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY...WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CWA TO END THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING CLEAR
SKIES AND DRIER AIR TO THE CWA. ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THE WORK
WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
747 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2008

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-181000-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
747 AM MDT (847 AM CDT) THU JUL 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS LATER FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
STORMS DEVELOP INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
940 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             30 NW GILLETTE          44.60N 105.93W
07/17/2008  E0.75 INCH       CAMPBELL           WY   PUBLIC

&&

BCECIL