Hail and Damaging Wind in Wisconsin, July 20, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008

.SHORT TERM...LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WV LOOP SHOWS A VORT IN
A SHORT WAVE TROF SPINNING TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS
A 80-90 KNOT JET LET WORKS INTO NRN WI. PROGGED CIN GRAPHICS
INDICATE SOME DECREASE OVER MN AND FAR WRN WI DURING THE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING. BEST SURFACE INSTABILITY OVER EC WI
WHERE A BIT MORE SUN. NOTED LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FOR A POSSIBLE
FOCUS OF CONVECTION.  WITH THE VORT FIELD WORKING OVER NRN WI THIS
AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH THE MOIST LOWER
LAYERS AND LOW LFC/LCL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CLOUDS LIFTING.
12Z DATA TO THE WEST INDICATE STRONG H5/H7 WINDS WITH THIS
JETLET. BUT CLOUDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE PUT A HOLD ON
CONVECTION DEVELOPING SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE EXPECT SOME
LATE AFTN AND EVENING DEVELOPMENT ESP NORTH.  MODELS PROGGING
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER NE/IA AGAIN ALONG RRQ REGION
OF JETLET REGION AND CAP EDGE OVER THIS REGION. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE THE MAINLY AFTN INSTAB CHC MENTION MONDAY AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH AND DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. GFS
AND NAM DIVERT ON TUESDAY WITH THE SLOWER GFS HANGING THE TROF
BACK AND INDICATING A CHC FOR AT LEAST AFTN INSTAB PCPN. THE NAM
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROF EXITING EAST AND DRIER FILTERING
IN. GLANCE AT THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A SLOWER TREND OF THE TROF AXIS
DROPPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF WI SO ADDED AN AFTN INSTAB CHC
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. EXPECT LINGERING
INSTAB CONVECTION IN THE EVENING. FOR TUESDAY GFS AND NAM DIVERT
ON SOLUTIONS WITH THE SLOWER GFS HANGING THE TROF BACK AND
INDICATING A CHC FOR AT LEAST THE AFTN INSTAB VARIETY. THE NAM IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROF EXITING EAST AND DRIER FILTERING
IN.  GLANCE AT THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A SLOWER TREND OF THE TROF AXIS
DROPPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF WI SO ADDED AN AFTN INSTAB CHC
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.

CONTINUED THE DRY FCST AFTER TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MID WEEK.  RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROF PASSING OVER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. LATEST TREND IS SLOWER SO WILL CONFINE START TIME TO THE
THRU AFTERNOON TIME FRAME AND DEPARTURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR
EAST. THE MDM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THIS EVENT BUT
ANTICIPATE TIMING ADJUSTMENTS LATER IN THE WEEK. BUT SINCE THIS
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY QUICK...CONFINED PCPN CHCS TO 24 HOURS OR LESS.

ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER DRY PERIOD. SOME
PROGS INDICATE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF TO BEGIN WORKING OVER AND
FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NRN PLAINS. BUT IT APPEARS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FCST INTO SUNDAY.

PROGGED H8 TEMPS AND SHORT DURATION WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGES
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...CONTINUED MVFR CIGS WITH SCT
CONVECTION.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TDH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-211730-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR A WHILE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AS BREAKS OCCUR...INSTABILITY WILL THEN INCREASE
TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE WEEK. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE IF THEY MIGHT BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-211730-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...MAY IMPACT MARINERS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AREAS OF FOG MAY LINGER OVER THE LAKE AND BAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TH