Hail and Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, April 25, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
427 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ALL INDICATED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A LOW
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST OF THE LOW
TO LAKE MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM
WERE AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 60 AT 21Z...AND THERE
WAS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO EASTERN
MISSOURI. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN
THE STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
STATE...ONLY SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH BY LATE
TONIGHT IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THE AIRMASS APPEARS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW THERE SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ADDED A MIX WITH RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM UP A BIT DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE ON A SURFACE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTHEAST OF WISCONSIN SUNDAY. GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ALL HAD THE LOW
MOVING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THAT PATH WOULD RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION MAINLY FALLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF
COLD AIR IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE RAIN OR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM UP. A RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN SOME DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION BECAME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CIGS WERE MVFR IN CENTRAL WI AND IFR
OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. CIGS FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST.
&&

.MARINE...WITH INCREASING GRADIENT AFTER FROPA...SCA HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE LAKESHORE AND BAY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MG/MG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1146 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-261415-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
1146 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF AN IRON MOUNTAIN TO MERRILL
LINE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE STATE. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IF SIGNIFICANT BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOP...LEADING TO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
IF THIS DOES OCCUR...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW
ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-261415-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
1146 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OVER THE
STATE. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
INCREASE TODAY IF SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
DEVELOP...LEADING TO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
INTO THIS EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO LIFT
LATER TONIGHT.

WINDS AND WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WINDS AND WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING SATURDAY EVENING.

ECKBERG