Flood in Washington, November 11 to 12, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM TUE NOV 11 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
AND WIND TO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE WARM FRONT FROM EARLIER ON TUESDAY...THE
STRONG WARM FRONT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WAS ALREADY INCREASING RAIN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS EVENING. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SHIFT MOSTLY NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON WITH MORE RAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH LOOK FOR INCREASING AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FIRST SURGE OF RAIN FROM A RATHER STRONG WARM FRONT
MOVED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA EARLIER TODAY BUT STALLED ACROSS LANE
COUNTY. THE WARM FRONT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THIS SERIES WAS
ALREADY SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS
EVENING AND RAIN HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS OF MINOR FLOODING FROM
THE HEAVY RAIN NEAR TILLAMOOK AND RECENTLY ISSUED A URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THE RAINFALL THIS EVENING
IS QUITE A BIT HEAVIER THAN THE RAINFALL RATES FROM THIS MORNING. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SAY THIS WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST AND NORTH LATER
TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN RAIN IN MUCH OF OUR AREA EXCEPT POSSIBLY
PARTS OF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES. IF SO...THIS PERIOD OF LESSER RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LESSEN THE CHANCE OF FLOODING. THEN THE COLD
FRONT UP IN WASHINGTON WILL SWEEP DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MORE
HEAVY RAIN. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES
AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN ZONES AND NEAR MOUNT HOOD LOOKS REASONABLE IN
LIGHT OF MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THE RAIN DOES NOT EASE LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN MORE AREAS WILL BE AT RISK.

WINDS HAVE BEEN PICKING UP ALONG THE COAST WITH THIS SECOND WARM
FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY...SPREADING INLAND LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WE COULD
GET CLOSE TO HIGH WIND NEAR THE COAST BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST OF UP
AROUND 50 MPH NEAR BEACHES AND HEADLANDS SEEMS REASONABLE. INTERIOR
WINDS COULD REACH CLOSE TO 40 MPH.

THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWERS.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR AREAS OF FOG. TOLLESON
&&

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS MAINTAIN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH DRY WEATHER AND
MILD TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WE COULD BE SETTING UP FOR A MORE FOGGY
REGIME FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
&&

.AVIATION...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MVFR THIS EVENING WITH
AREAS OF IFR TO LIFR ALONG THE COAST. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z IN THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WED MORNING. CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN
THROUGH THE DAY WED AS A COLD FRONT SAG SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR WILL LOWER TO
PREDOMINATELY MVFR OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONTAL RAIN CONTINUES SPREADING
OVER THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA INCREASING AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT
PUSHED ACROSS THE WATERS AND SHOULD REACH GALE STRENGTH SHORTLY. SEAS
WILL STAY SHY OF HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF SWELL AND VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...AS WELL AS
RAIN RUNOFF INTO BAYS...WILL PRODUCE SOME MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST PARTICULARLY THE WILLAPA
AND BAKER BAYS.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...GALE WARNING CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD THROUGH
          MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
        GALE WARNING CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
          MORNING.
        SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR THROUGH
          WED AFTERNOON.
        COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
         SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST MIDDAY WED.
        FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...THE NORTH OREGON COAST
         AND COAST RANGE...AND THE MT HOOD AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
         WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
        URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH
         WASHINGTON AND NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND COASTAL
         MOUNTAINS.
&&

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
http://weather.gov/portland

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
536 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2008

ORZ001-002-PZZ210-WAZ021-121345-
NORTH OREGON COAST-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-COLUMBIA RIVER BAR-
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-
536 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OREGON...NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST
TODAY. REFER TO THE LATEST WARNING (PDXNPWPQR) FOR DETAILS. HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN FLOODING. REFER TO THE
LATEST HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (PDXESFPQR) FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY MAY RESULT IN FLOODING. REFER TO THE
LATEST STATEMENT (PDXESFPQR) FOR DETAILS. HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COAST MAY LEAD TO MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW FLOODING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL HAZARD
MESSAGE (PDXCFWPQR) FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING ARE
ENCOURAGED.

PZZ250-255-270-275-121345-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
536 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...REFER TO THE
LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE (PDXMWWPQR) FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...REFER TO THE
LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE (PDXMWWPQR) FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ORZ003>013-WAZ019-020-022-023-039-040-121345-
COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA-
GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-WILLAPA HILLS-I-
5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
536 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN FLOODING. REFER TO
THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (PDXESFPQR) FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN FLOODING. REFER TO
THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (PDXESFPQR) FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING ARE ENCOURAGED.

ORZ014-121345-
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
536 AM PST TUE NOV 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.