Hail and Damaging Wind in Texas, May 22, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1015 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL 88DS SHOW SCATTERED RW/TRW ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE TX ZONES...WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY WEST OF
MARSH ISLAND. ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TEH MORNING TO
BETTER SUIT ONGOING TRENDS...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE TX.
CONTINUED INHERITED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE ERN 1/2 OF THE AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE
ACROSS THE AREA.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2008/

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS RATHER LARGE AND DEEP (983MB) SFC LOW
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS UP WEST OF THE
SABINE INTO TX...AND COASTAL WATERS. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
RATHER WARM...WITH SE TX BPT REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S.
ELSEWHERE...LOWER TO MID 70S PREVAIL.

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY WITH THE APPROACHING TX
COASTAL BEND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROF WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH/WAVE FROM
THE YUCATAN. THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEARS TO BE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LA AND POINTS EAST...WHERE THE INHERITED
50% LOOKS GOOD...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 30% FOR SE TX. WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LEFT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OVER LA...
APPROACHING 90S ACROSS THE INLAND SE TX LAKES REGION.

AS THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS NE OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...POPS WILL
DIMINISH GREATLY OVER SE TX/W LA...WITH 20% LEFT FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR EARLY EVENING LINGERING CONVECTION.

LEFT A TAD
GREATER POPS FOR FRI AS WELL ACROSS C AND SC LA FOR LINGERING
MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION...AND REMAIN DUE TO AN EXPECTED OMEGA BLOCK FORMING. EXPECT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLE MID 90S FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH IS ABOUT 4-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. LEFT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY..AS IT APPEARS
THAT SOME MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE SEA-
BREEZE ACTION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING VERY DRY 1000-500MB
AIR BEGINNING WED...WHICH WILL BASICALLY PUT A LID ON ANY TSRA OR
EVEN SHRA DEVELOPMENT.

THE LATEST 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES THIS TREND RIGHT INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JUNE.

DML

AVIATION...
MIFR CEILINGS ALREADY AFFECTING BPT/LCH SITES WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SHORTWAVE...WITH VCSH BEGINNING 12Z...AND VCTS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL SITES.

DML/JT

MARINE...
SE WINDS 15-20KT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THUS SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINED. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT BY FRI...SE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH DOWN TO 10-15 KTS...AND SEAS 3-4 FT...THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RATHER PERSISTENT WX PATTERN EXPECTED WITH ONLY
ISOLATED LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING NOCTURNAL SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  76  91  77 /  40  10  20  20
KBPT  87  76  91  75 /  40  10  20  10
KAEX  88  72  92  72 /  40  20  20  20
KLFT  88  72  90  74 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
426 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-231100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
426 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AN APPROACHING TEXAS COASTAL BEND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INTERACT WITH A SURFACE WAVE FROM THE YUCATAN TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS...AND LOWER TO MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH
IS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. EXPECT AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT PUTTING THE LID ON ANY DEVELOPMENT
BY WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1059 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 AM     TSTM WND GST     18 SSE SABINE PASS      29.50N 93.78W
05/22/2008  E50 MPH          GMZ450             LA   PUBLIC

            OFFSHORE RIG SABINE PASS 10 REPORTED WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO
            50 MPH.

&&

JNUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1214 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

LAZ051-TXZ181-182-215-216-221815-
CAMERON LA-NEWTON TX-JASPER TX-JEFFERSON TX-ORANGE TX-
1214 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

..SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CAMERON PARISH..SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT FOR NEWTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES UNTIL 115
PM CDT...

AT 1209 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR OVER SABINE LAKE...OR ABOUT 4 MILES
EAST OF PORT ARTHUR...MOVING NORTH AT 23 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BRIDGE CITY BY 1235 PM CDT
  WEST ORANGE BY 1245 PM CDT
  ORANGE BY 1250 PM CDT
  MAURICEVILLE BY 110 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

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