Hail in Texas, May 10, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
647 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TSRA IS EXPECTED NEAR KAUS UNTIL ABOUT 03Z AS THE DRYLINE
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME PATCHY HAZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST BY
04-05Z AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY 08-10Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008/

DISCUSSION...
DRY LINE HAS PUSHED THRU THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 102 BEHIND THE
DRIER WESTERLY WIND SHIFT. EXPECTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS THE DRY LINE MOVES EASTWARD THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE RED RIVER.
COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE IN THE NRN HILL COUNTRY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
PUSH THRU THE CWA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DRY BREEZY NORTH
WINDS PREVAILING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SUBSIDE.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS SUNDAY 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW TODAY.

A QUICK RETURN TO SLY WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. AS THE LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM WEST TX TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE BEST RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE NRN CWA AS THE LOW LIFTS NE FROM WEST TX INTO N TX.
BRIEFLY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. HOWEVER A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROF WILL DROP SWD THU
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE AREA...BUT
SETTING UP FOR A PLEASANT DRY WEEKEND AS A DRY NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS ANY NWLY FLOW EVENTS WOULD AFFECT THE
AREA MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL APPROACH CRITICAL HUMIDITIES/WINDS MOST OF THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY HELP OFFSET THE DRYING AS NLY WINDS INCREASE INTO
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING
WHICH COULD SEND HUMIDITIES LOWER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  84  58  86  72 /  20   0   0   0  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  83  52  88  72 /  20   0   0   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  86  64  90  76 /  10   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  84  59  87  73 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

02/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
400 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-111200-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
400 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A
MOUNTAIN HOME TO HONDO TO CAMPBELLTON LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A DRY COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY COULD RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.