Tornadoes and Hail in Oklahoma, May 10, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

.UPDATE...
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN LESS NUMEROUS THAN EXPECTED WITH THE
ACTIVITY REALLY BLOSSOMING DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO JUST
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN
OUR FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SOME CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND EXPECT TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AID IN THE RAPID DESTABILIZATION
THAT WILL BE TAKING PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL ORGANIZE TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRYLINE RACES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS WILL POSE A HAIL THREAT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPLODE ALONG BOTH THE
RETREATING WARM FRONT AND THE DRYLINE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM WITH
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY FROM THEN UNTIL AROUND 9 PM.
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL ALL BE
LIKELY GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THAT WILL RESIDE OVER THE
AREA. THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 4-6 PM
TIME RANGE WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME. FOR THE
HEAVILY POPULATED TULSA METRO AREA...4-5 PM LOOKS TO BE THE TIME
OF MOST CONCERN.

OVERALL DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH JUST
A FEW FIRST PERIOD TWEAKS FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....06

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
530 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-102230-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
530 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...TORNADOES POSSIBLE...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA....EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET....AFTER 3PM...ENDING BY 9PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
         HUNTSVILLE TO WEBBERS FALLS TO MCALESTER.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...10 AM.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY MID MORNING
AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AROUND NOON.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS ARE
THE WIND SPEEDS ALOFT.  SEVERAL OF THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE
LIKELY IN THE MOST INTENSE CELLS.

DURING THE AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND STORM BOUNDARY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH
BOTH A COLD FRONT AND A DRY LINE.  EXTREME INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT WITH CAPE VALUES
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
BY MID AFTERNOON.

OTHER STORM MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE
LATE TODAY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN
RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS.  IF THE
STORMS DEVELOP...A FEW OF THESE WILL LIKELY ALSO BECOME SEVERE
AS THEY MOVE TOWARD NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

WIND FIELDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS
AND FAST MOVING LINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES
WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHERE
THE CELLS MAY BE ABLE TO STAY IN THE VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE WARM FRONT FOR THE GREATEST PERIOD OF TIME.
WELL ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS DURING THIS EVENT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO ALSO PRODUCE HAIL NEAR BASEBALL SIZE AND WINDS
TO 80 MPH.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
STORMS ARE NOT TOO WIDESPREAD...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
ABLE TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS TO THE NORTH.  THIS WOULD
SPREAD THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  THEREFORE
EVERYONE IN THE REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SPRING STORM SYSTEM.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK WILL BE NEEDED
TODAY.  NET CONTROLLERS SHOULD PLAN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ONE LONG ACTIVATION FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD ENSURE ALL COMMUNICATIONS MODES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS ARE READY AND VISIT THE
DECISION SUPPORT PAGE FOR UPDATES THROUGH OUT THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AREA BEHIND THE
CURRENT STORM SYSTEM AS IT DEEPENS RAPIDLY ONCE IT MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN IN THE AREA
IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEMS
DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1114 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

OKZ066>068-070-101700-
CHEROKEE OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-WAGONER OK-
1114 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL NOON CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN OKMULGEE AND SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN MUSKOGEE AND WESTERN CHEROKEE

AT 1114 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HASKELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WAGONER...
CHOSKA...TULLAHASSEE...PORTER...OKAY...STONEBLUFF...REDBIRD...
MUSKOGEE...JAMESVILLE...TAFT...FORT GIBSON AND HASKELL.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3578 9512 3565 9578 3582 9587 3608 9541
      3608 9539
TIME...MOT...LOC 1614Z 247DEG 43KT 3577 9571