Lightning Strike in Texas, June 24, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
903 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE TO RAISE POPS AREAWIDE. LOTS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE
OF ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
WHERE SOME TRAINING DEVELOPS.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008/

DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO A SLIGHTLY WETTER PERIOD FOR SE TX THESE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALREADY SEEING QUITE A BIT MORE SH/TSRA DEV-
ELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (THAN COMP-
ARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME). NOT MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE AND
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEABREEZE ACTIVITY LATER TODAY SHOULD ACCOUNT
FOR THE SCT CONVECTION IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTN. MODELS (PAR-
TICULARLY THE GFS) CONTINUING THE AGGRESSIVE POP TREND FOR WED/
THURS AS A DEEPER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN OFF THE GULF. THIS
COMBINED WITH AFTN HEATING/SEABREEZE COULD ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY
BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS PATTERN PROGGED TO
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND/EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. 41

AVIATION...
MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE AND SHRA DOTTING THE COASTAL WATERS AND
COASTAL COUNTIES. WILL LIKELY CARRY VCSH FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
CXO SOUTHWARD. EXPECTING TO SEE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP ALONG
THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS AS FAR
NORTH AS CXO. WILL EXCLUDE MENTION OF LIGHT FOG AT LBX THANKS TO THE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AFTER 06Z.
45

MARINE...
SCATTERED SHRA SHOULD BE THE NORM THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
TAPERING OFF. WINDS IN GENERAL 5-15 KNOTS SEAS 2-4 FEET. DIURNAL
TREND OF LIGHTER WINDS DURING THE DAY AND STRONGER OVERNIGHT. AS OF
NOW AM DISCOUNTING THE GFS PROG OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HAVE BLENDED PREVIOUS
PACKAGE WITH ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  74  93  73  94 /  40  40  40  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  75  92  74  93 /  50  50  50  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  79  88  79  90 /  50  30  50  50  30
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
616 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-251130-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
616 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.