Drought in Texas, July 23 to 31, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1110 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.AVIATION...
1110 PM CDT

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. NEW MODEL RUNS ARE
EXPANDING THE REACH OF DOLLY...BACKING WINDS FURTHER. SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN 12KTS OR LESS...SO ANY EASTERLIES WILL BE ONLY MINIMAL
CROSSWIND. 25

&&

.UPDATE...
954 PM CDT

HURRICANE DOLLY IS A CAT 1 WITH WINDS NEAR 75 MPH, WHILE MORE NW
AROUND 10 KNOTS. AT 7 PM...TPC/TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN MIAMI
FL/ NOTED SHE WAS ONLY A LITTLE OVER A HUNDRED MILES ESE OF
BROWNSVILLE WITH A LANDFALL STILL EXPECTED LATE MORNING TO AROUND
MIDDAY...SO NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM EARLIER TODAY.

AS FOR N TX...ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED AS
EXPECTED...WITH CONVECTION WITH NW FLOW DISTURBANCES REMAINING WELL
TO THE EAST OVER SRN AR/NRN LA AND CONVECTION WITH DOLLY
CONSTRICTING TOWARD IT/S CENTER AS IS THE USUAL NOCTURNAL TREND WITH
TROPICAL WARM CORE SYSTEMS. OTHERWISE...JUST ADJUSTED TRENDS. UPDATE
SENT.

/05

&&

.AVIATION...
612 PM CDT

NO CONCERNS...VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY...A BIT MORE EASTERLY IN CENTRAL TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO
DOLLY. CONVECTION MAY SNEAK INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...
BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN WACO TAF.

TREMENDOUS SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF DOLLY WILL MEAN RH VALUES
WELL BELOW 30 PERCENT FROM 200MB ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 700MB...NEAR
THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER. FEW/SCT CU WILL
BE UNINHIBITED...AND WILL DEVELOP IN HUMID SURFACE LAYER AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. ANTICYCLONIC CI/CS WILL RESULT IN EXTRAORDINARY CEILINGS
AS HIGH AS 150MB (45KFT). 25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
627 PM CDT

WIDELY SCT CONVECTION IN SE OK PUSHING A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH
SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NOTED JUST NE OF PARIS...SO HAVE ADDED LESS
THAN 20%/ISOLATED MENTION FOR LAMAR COUNTY ONLY THROUGH
SUNSET...WHILE MAINTAINING ISOLATED MENTION SE OF A
TEMPLE...GROESBECK...ATHENS LINE FOR OUTSKIRTS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE DOLLY (SEE LINKS/GRAPHICS ON OUR WEB-PAGE
FOR LATEST COORDS).

AS NORMAL WITH TROPICAL/WARM-CORE CIRCULATIONS FAR AWAY...BETTER
FORCING LATENT HEATING WILL CONSTRICT OVERNIGHT CLOSER TOWARDS
DOLLYS CENTER I-10 CORRIDOR/SWD. WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/WARM
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR ALL OF N TX AS HEATING SUBSIDES. UPDATE
SENT.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
241 PM CDT

TS DOLLY REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STATUS...BUT SHOULD BECOME ONE
THIS EVENING OR LATER TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECASTS TAKE HER INTO THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WESTWARD INTO THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ONE FEEDER BAND IS APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TODAY AND
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK NORTHWEST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS FEATURE SPREADS MOISTURE INTO NORTH
TEXAS...THERE SHOULD BE A SECOND CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON
THURSDAY. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE THE AIR
MASS IS TROPICAL.

AFTERWARD AND ELSEWHERE...SUB-TROPICAL HIGH ALOFT REMAINS LOCKED
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. AFTER DOLLY
WEAKENS OVER MEXICO...THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER NORTH TEXAS...BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR CURRENT LEVELS
AND ENDING OUR CHANCE FOR ANY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
THE OUTLOOK FOR A COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEK IS NOT
PROMISING...BUT IT COULD BACKDOOR INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES
BRIEFLY AFTER MID NEXT WEEK. 75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
241 PM CDT

ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A BRIEF SHOT OF BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL FROM DOLLY...THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN THE
GRIP OF DROUGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY EXPAND FURTHER NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY REACH THE I-20
CORRIDOR BEFORE AUGUST AND THE EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS COULD
EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES.  75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80 100  79  96  78 /   0   5  10  20  10
WACO, TX              77  97  76  92  76 /   5  20  20  40  10
PARIS, TX             74  97  73  95  74 /  10   5  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            77  99  76  95  75 /   0   5  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          75  98  75  95  75 /   0   5  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            80 100  79  96  78 /   0   5  10  20  10
TERRELL, TX           76  98  74  94  74 /   5   5  10  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         75  95  73  93  74 /   5  10  20  30  10
TEMPLE, TX            74  94  73  90  74 /  10  20  30  50  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

05/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1000 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-231100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
1000 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE...HILLSBORO...ATHENS LINE.

MOREOVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THIS SAME AREA
ON THURSDAY...AS A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHEAST FETCH COMES FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLE.

LOWER CHANCES WILL REACH FROM THIS AREA NORTH TO THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...THOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WHERE THE CUT OFF OF
RAIN OCCURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

05/