Hail in South Dakota, May 6, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
225 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK LOW ACROSS
MONTANA/WYOMING. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN AREA OF MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SBCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH STRENGTH OF 700-500 Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...HAVE INCREASED POPS.

EXTENDED...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&
.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
LCL MVFR CIGS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST
OF THE BLACK HILLS.

&&
.HYDROLOGY...CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW RISES AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER AT CAMP CROOK HAS RISEN
ABOUT 5 FEET IN THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND IS WITHIN 3 FEET OF FLOOD
STAGE. LATEST FORECAST HAS STAGE CRESTING JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LET FLOOD WATCH FOR BUTTE COUNTY EXPIRE...AND
CONTINUE WITH WATCH FOR HARDING AND NORTHERN HILLS/FOOTHILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN BLACK
     HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR HARDING.

WY...NONE.

&&

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