Hail in South Dakota, August 13, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1011 AM MDT WED AUG 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER TODD AND TRIPP COUNTIES THIS MORNING
LOOKED IMPRESSIVE ON EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE. STORMS
PERHAPS NEAR SEVERE BUT HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZED HAIL FOUND ON
STRONGER STORMS TO THE SOUTH. RAINFALL OF AS MUCH AS AN INCH OR SO
MAY HAVE OCCURRED ALONG HIGHWAY 18 IN EASTERN TRIPP COUNTY FROM
WINNER TO SOUTHWEST OF GREGORY. 12Z UNR SOUNDING SHOWED A WEAK
WIND PROFILE AND A HIGH WET BULB ZERO OF 11.5KFT. HOWEVER SEVERAL
STORMS NEAR SEVERE AND ADDITIONAL STORM REPORTS FROM FSD SUGGEST
WE MAY WARN ON A FEW THIS MORNING.

COORDINATING TO THE NORTH WE PULLED BACK POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH 0Z. AFTER 0Z POPS CONTINUED AS A SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE ACROSS WY/MT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 0Z TONIGHT
AND BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE AREA.

THANKS TO SURROUNDING WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES FOR HELPFUL COORDINATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING... WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AFTER 0Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM MDT WED AUG 13 2008/

DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE CWA. A PATCH OF ACCAS CLOUDS WERE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE BLACK HILLS. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA
WITH MORE MOIST AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. RADAR
SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITHIN A LOW
LEVEL JET AND GOOD THETA E ADVECTION. TODAY...SHOWERS AND SOME
STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS MORNING BEFORE
MOVING EAST AND/OR DISSIPATING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WAVE APPROACHING FROM MONTANA. BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30 KT...SO PERHAPS A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER
WEST CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER
LOW DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT ALONG THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
BEHIND THE WAVE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS STILL SHOW A TRACK THAT BRINGS THE LOW
SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA/WYOMING BORDER THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY GIVEN THIS CONSISTENCY IN
TIMING AND TRACK. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT WILL NOT BE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA. THE LOW
DOESNT BECOME STATIONARY UNTIL IT IS SOUTH OF THE CWA WHEN A RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CREATING A BLOCK
PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP
TEMPS A BIT COOL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

EXTENDED...00Z GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING UPPER LOW SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR
SATURDAY...BUT MOST OF IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY REBOUND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...LEADING TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. TSRA POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW IN CANADA SINKS SOUTH. LOCALIZED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

HIRSCH/MASEK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
354 AM MDT WED AUG 13 2008

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-141300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
354 AM MDT (454 AM CDT) WED AUG 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A CHANCE FOR STORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE A COUPLE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.