Hail in South Carolina, May 9, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1047 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY PUSH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON SUNDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SWIFT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO INTERACT
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE REGION TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL GROWTH AND ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.
THE DECENT FORCING SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO SURVIVE EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...AND THE EXISTING SVR TSTM WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH 1 AM. WITH THIS UPDATE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ADJUSTED UP
FOR OVERNIGHT MINS GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
CLOUDS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DWINDLE TO ISOLATED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SATURDAY...WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST OF
THE CWA BY MID DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUPPLYING NW WINDS WITH MARGINAL
GUSTS. NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY ALLOWING
CAPE TO BUILD ACROSS ELBERT AND ABBEVILLE COUNTIES. I WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY WITH A SCHC ACROSS THE AREA OF HIGHER CAPE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD THE MID 70S IN THE MTN VALLEYS
AND MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...SAT NIGHT WILL BEGIN RATHER TRANQUIL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGED S OVER THE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STATIONARY
FROM SOUTHERN SC INTO CENTRAL GA. HOWEVER...THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE W AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/STRONG
MOISTURE FLUX COMMENCES LATE SAT NIGHT. 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH RESPOND
TO THIS FORCING BY RAPIDLY DEVELOPING PRECIP FROM W TO E OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. THIS EARLY ONSET OF
PRECIP ALLOWS FOR A WEDGE TO DEVELOP EARLY ON SUN AND MODELS
MAINTAIN IT ESSENTIALLY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY
TO SCOUR IT OUT. THEREFORE...EXPECT A COOL/RAINY DAY ON SUN OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER ON SUN DUE TO WEDGE
AND TRIPLE POINT SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE S. WILL FORECAST
RAIN...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS INDICATE THAT PRECIP SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE E OF THE AREA BY
00Z MON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE MOUINTAINS WHERE A RATHER
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOIST/UPSLOPE IS FORECAST. HENCE...WILL
MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE USUAL AREAS FOR UPSLOPE
PRECIP. UPSLOPE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON.
ELSEWHERE...A COOL NW FLOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH BREEZING
CONDITIONS ON MON. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING MAX TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE. STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV MAX/MIN TEMP
GUIDANCE. GUIDANCE POPS REASONABLE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH TRENDED
TOWARD A MORE ECWMF SOLUTION. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TUE INTO WED AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. ON
WED...THE HIGH SHIFTS E ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE
ON WED. UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A MENTION
OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA WED NIGHT AND INTO THU AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A DRY
PERIOD BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE A
SECONDARY FRONT APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY SPREADS SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS LATE FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO TERMINAL FORECAST AREA ALONG EAST TO WEST
ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE HAVE GIVEN RISE TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT COULD
SPREAD EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN TO KGSP AND KGMU OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. GENEARLLY VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT SOME MVFR DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK. SFC
TO 850 MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POOLED ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTIVE
CUMULUS...BUT KEEP ANY CEILINGS AT VFR LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME
SOME MVFR CLOUDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING EARLY SUN MORNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCT SHWRS/TSTMS AND CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SUN TO
SUN NIGHT. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN MON TO
WED.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
909 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ002-
003-005>009-013-014-110115-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-UNION SC-CHESTER-
909 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001-004-010>012-019-110115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
909 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
617 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

NCZ036-056-069-071-092245-
CATAWBA-IREDELL-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-
617 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN LINCOLN...NORTHERN
MECKLENBURG...SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA AND SOUTHERN IREDELL COUNTIES
THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 613 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAIDEN...OR 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LINCOLNTON...MOVING EAST AT 26 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  NORMAN...TERRELL...MOORESVILLE...MAIDEN...LOWESVILLE...
  LINCOLNTON...HUNTERSVILLE...DENVER...DAVIDSON...CORNELIUS AND BOGER
  CITY.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 PM EDT FRI MAY 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             DENVER                  35.53N 81.03W
05/09/2008  E0.88 INCH       LINCOLN            NC   PUBLIC

&&

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
755 PM EDT FRI MAY 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             5 SW CONCORD            35.36N 80.66W
05/09/2008  E1.00 INCH       CABARRUS           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED ABUNDANT PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE
            HAIL WITH SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
832 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

NCZ069-071-072-100100-
CABARRUS-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-
832 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CABARRUS...NORTHERN MECKLENBURG
AND SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

AT 831 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF HUNTERSVILLE...OR 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF UNC CHARLOTTE...MOVING EAST AT 31 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LOWES MOTOR
  SPEEDWAY...UNC CHARLOTTE...KANNAPOLIS...HUNTERSVILLE...
  HARRISBURG...DAVIDSON...CROFT...CORNELIUS AND CONCORD.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1034 PM EDT FRI MAY 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1032 PM     HAIL             BREVARD                 35.24N 82.73W
05/09/2008  E0.75 INCH       TRANSYLVANIA       NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS 3/4 INCH HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND
            GUSTY WINDS.

0943 PM     HAIL             WAYNESVILLE             35.48N 83.00W
05/09/2008  E0.50 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS 1/2 INCH HAIL.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1101 PM EDT FRI MAY 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HAIL             4 S BREVARD             35.18N 82.73W
05/09/2008  E1.75 INCH       TRANSYLVANIA       NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL POWER LINES DOWN AND DEBRIS IN THE ROAD.

&&

AKIMBALL