Hail and Damaging Winds in South Carolina, June 2, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
310 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES CLEARED OUT MUCH QUICKER THAN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED AS A RESULT. SEVERAL AREAS MAY
ACTUALLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BEFORE SUNSET. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE BY THE HOUR WITH
RECENT INSTABILITY PLOTS SHOWING SBCAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG...LIFTED
INDICES NEAR -7 AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 C/KM. THE
CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF VIDALIA
APPEARED TO HAVE FORMED ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
INDUCED BY THIS MORNING/S CLOUD COVER AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST NUMBER OF THESE BOUNDARIES ARE LURKING AROUND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE NOW EVIDENT ON THE NORTH GEORGIA COAST
COULD SERVE AS FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
AS NOTED BY RECENT REPORTS FROM WFOS JACKSONVILLE AND ATLANTA.
PLAN TO INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 AS THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE THE MOST PRIMED
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY
A POSSIBILITY.

WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS CENTERED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A REIDSVILLE-SAVANNAH LINE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST
INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TUESDAY AS MEAN TROUGHING THAT IS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC KICKS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. A
BROAD ONSHORE FLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BUT ENOUGH MAY EXIST TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST BY MID AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION
SETTING UP AROUND 850 MB AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING HEIGHT ALOFT SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
90S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 80S AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...DON/T ANTICIPATE ENOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO WARRANT MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KSAV TERMINAL. HAVE MENTION OF VICINITY
SHOWERS AT KSAV BETWEEN 19Z-22Z. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
MAY OCCUR IN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT AT BOTH SITES AS PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. SEAS 1-3 FT CAN BE
EXPECTED.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS WILL WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

ST/JRJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2008

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-031000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
400 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE AREA TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES FROM THE
WEST. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT BECOMES SEVERE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
440 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2008

SCZ050-022115-
CHARLESTON-
440 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY
THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 436 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1/2 INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SOUTH
WINDERMERE...MOVING SOUTH AT 9 MPH.

AREAS IN AND AROUND FOLLY BEACH AND JAMES ISLAND WILL BE IMPACTED
THROUGH 515 PM EDT.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
BE READY TO TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION IN CASE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE
AT 1-888-383-2024 IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS HAIL...DOWNED
TREES...LIMBS AND POWER LINES.