Dense Fog in Rhode Island, July 2, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
522 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK OR 2 WITH
THE FREQUENCY OF SHORT EPISODES OF THUNDERY WEATHER CONTINUING AS JUNES
UNSTABLE WARM PATTERN PERSISTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SUMMER
PATTERN FEATURES THE CONSTANCY OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRES SYSTEM
DAMPENING OUT APPROACHING COLD FRONTS SPUN EASTWARD BY THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES SYSTEMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS MAINLY ACROSS
INLAND AREAS...THOUGH BOTH KACK AND KPVD HAVE REPORTED LOW CLOUDS
RECENTLY. A FEW LOCATIONS ALSO HAVE VSBYS AT OR BELOW 1/2
MILE...MAINLY IN THE CT VALLEY. EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING.

IR SATELLITE SHOWING BATCH OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE SW FLOW. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO QUICKLY SHIFT NE WITH
STRONG UPPER FLOW.

SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. ALL ARE SIGNALING THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO REDEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A BIT FURTHER E THAN THE LAST FEW
DAYS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND H4 STREAMLINES SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD HELP TRIGGER
THIS ACTIVITY AS THE TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ALSO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT...WITH LIS IN THE
-2 TO -3 RANGE...TTS IN THE LOWER 50S...AND K INDICES AROUND 30.
ALSO...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.

HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS WITH WORDING OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
STARTING AROUND 17Z OR SO. FEEL BEST SHOT WILL BE FROM E CT-CENTRAL
AND NE MA...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT STRAY ACTIVITY EVEN INTO E
MA...RI /INCLUDING THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR/ AND S NH. MAY NOT BE AS
NUMEROUS AS YESTERDAYS ACTIVITY...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE
FORECAST. SPC MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN
THEIR CONVECTION OUTLOOK. WILL MENTION THIS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK THIS MORNING.

APPEARS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BY
AROUND 00Z OR SO.

TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE 80S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
90 DEGREE READING OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET...
EXPECT TO END BY AROUND 03Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PARTLY CLOUDY
NIGHT. WILL STILL BE RATHER MUGGY...SO HAVE ALSO MENTIONED PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
FOR THURSDAY. BELIEVE WE HAVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR MANY GUSTS 50
KNOTS WITH THE NARROW LINE OF SCT TO BKN CONVECTION ATTENDING THE FRONT
BARRELING INTO A HOT AIRMASS THAT HAS ITS OWN PRE CONVECTION GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30-35KTS.

THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE A HOT DAY THAT WILL FEATURE WIND.

CONTINUITY WITH PREV 4PM TUE FCST EXCEPTING RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY IN
NW MASS FOR THE LATE DAY LINE...THIS IN LINE WITH 21Z SREF POPS.

PLS SEE SPC DAY 2 DISCUSSIONS ON THE SUBJECT OF SVR. SOUNDINGS HAVE
40+ KNOTS 10000 FT.

OVERALL...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON THURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HAVE HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS LATE THURS AFTN INTO THURS NITE FOR
THIS AREA. GIVEN THE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THAT ARE
PRESENTLY MODELED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THURS
AFTN AND EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES TO THE WEST OF I-495 AND
NORTH OF I-84. CONTINUED HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FOR THURS NIGHT. WIND FIELDS VERY STRONG AND AM IMPRESSED
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWS IN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. THIS LOOKS LIKE
A BIG WIND DAMAGE DAY FOR A PTN OF SNE IF CONVECTION FIRES AS
ANTICIPATED. MORE LATER.

THE 4TH OF JULY FORECAST NOT YET FIRM SEEMS TO BE RESOLVING. HAVE
LEANED THIS FCST TO THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES DESPITE THE PERSISTENTLY
DRY OP RUNS OF THE EC. UK IS A LITTLE WETTER AND PROX OF THE FRONT AND
IMPENDING OVERRUNNING HAS ME NOT WANTING TO PROMISE A RAINFREE AFTERNOON
AND EVE FOR JULY 4TH. THIS COULD STILL END UP MORE OPTIMISTIC - DRY BUT
FOR NOW...TRENDED WETTER AND SOONER. CONFIDENCE AVG.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SEEMS CERTAIN TO BE SHOWERY AT TIMES WITH THE BETTER-
DRIER DAY OF THE WEEKEND FAVORING SUNDAY. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. COULD
BE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN /1-3 INCHES/ BUT NOT PLAYING THIS PART OF THE
HAND QUITE YET.

DAYTIME TEMPS FRI AND SAT MODIFIED DOWN SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT
WETTER SCENARIOS FCST WITH DAYTIMES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

NEAR DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION MAY EASE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
POSSIBLE HEAT WAVE DEVELOPS HERE SOMETIME NEXT WEEK /3 CONSEC 90 OR
HIGHER/. HOWEVER...FAIRLY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A STG SRN CANADIAN JET
MAY STILL KEEP CONVECTION ACTIVE. EVEN IF WE DONT HAVE A HEAT WAVE
NEXT WEEK...90 PLUS IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR AT LEAST 1 OR 2 DAYS

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TODAY...EXPECT EARLY MORNING MVFR-IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR...THOUGH SOME SPOTS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR CIGS-VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR IN LEFTOVER CONVECTION...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
MAY HAVE LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG...MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS
AFTER 03Z OR SO.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...VFR WITH POSSIBLE SW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS IN A HOT AIRMASS
THEN A LINE OF SCT TO BKN STG OR SVR TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY OR EVE
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS. AIR TRAVEL SLOWED BECAUSE OF AFTN/EVE STG
TSTMS BOS WESTWARD.

FRI AND SAT...IFR CONDS MAY DEVELOP VCNTY AND N OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. UNSURE ABOUT FRI BUT MORE CERTAIN FOR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...VFR LIKELY BUT A CHANCE OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS EXISTS...
ESP SUN NIGHT...DEPENDING ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND ANY ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE IFR COULD DEVELOP SIMPLY ON RETURN FLOW OF
HUMID AIRMASS.

&&

.MARINE...
APPEARS THAT THE S-SW SWELLS ARE FINALLY SUBSIDING...THOUGH STILL
NOTING A FEW BUOYS STILL AROUND 5 FEET. HAVE KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT
GOING FOR THE WATERS FROM NANTUCKET TO MONTAUK THROUGH TODAY.

MODELS OVERFORECASTED THE SWELL HEIGHT FOR TODAY INTO THE WATERS BY
1-2 FEET. BASED ON THIS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND OF THE
SWELLS FROM THE BUOYS...WILL NOT BE ISSUING HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR
THE S FACING BEACHES. GUIDANCE GAVE MODERATE RISK FOR NANTUCKET AND
MARTHAS VINEYARD...SO WILL STILL MONITOR IN CASE SWELLS CAUSE A
PROBLEM THERE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE S AND SW WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. MAY ALSO SEE SOME GUSTS TO
20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY REACH THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SOLID FOR THURSDAY...CONCEIVABLE A FEW NEAR
SHORE GUSTS TO LOW GALE FORCE IN THE AFTERNOON. NO SCA ISSUANCE ATTM
DUE TO CURRENT SCA SEGMENTS WHICH SOON ENDS. SCA SEAS WILL LIKELY
LINGER FRI AND POSSIBLY SAT.

SUNDAY...TRANQUIL...

&&

.CLIMATE...
PVD NOW 11 CONSEC DAYS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ255.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...DRAG  520
AVIATION...DRAG/EVT
MARINE...DRAG/EVT 520
CLIMATE....DRAG 520

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
539 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>019-022-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>005-030945-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
539 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE.

SEVERAL STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS...MAINLY THE INTERIOR.

THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY WILL FIND A COUPLE OF PERIODS
WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

AIR QUALITY MAY DETERIORATE NEXT WEEK AS IT BECOMES HOT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

ANZ230>237-250-254-255-030945-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT 25 NM TO PLYMOUTH MA OUT
40 NM...INCLUDING THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO BLOCK ISLAND RI TO MARTHAS
VINEYARD MA TO NANTUCKET MA SOUTHEAST TO 20 NM-
539 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG EARLY TODAY MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS BUT NOT AS BAD AS YESTERDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND HAIL
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SCITUATE MASSACHUSETTS REGION NORTHWARD
THROUGH BOSTON HARBOR TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET EARLY THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MARGINAL GALE FORCE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS IN THE HOT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AIRMASS NEAR THE SHORE FROM CAPE
COD UP TO BOSTON AND GLOUCESTER.

A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN A PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND HAMPER MARINE NAVIGATION...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MAZ020-021-023-024-RIZ006>008-030945-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
539 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN
EXPOSED SOUTH COASTS WHERE SURF OF 4 FOOT OR GREATER IS NOTED.

PATCHY FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE EARLY TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS AN EVEN HIGHER RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
OCEAN EXPOSED SOUTH COASTS WHERE SURF OF 4 FOOT OR GREATER IS NOTED
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN A PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED .

DRAG