Wildfire in Pennsylvania, March 25 to 26, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1145 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT MIDDAY WILL PASS OFF THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA ON THURSDAY, THEN TRY TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE
FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST, AND IT SHOULD PASS OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD DARK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES ACCORDING TO SATELLITE TRENDS WHICH SHOW CLOUDS INCREASING
ALONG THE WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA-NEW YORK BORDER AT LATE MORNING.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR EAST AND
WAS CAUSING WINDS TO COME AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INLAND
AT LATE MORNING, AND THIS WILL CAUSE A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND AT
ALL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS A LITTLE
STRATOCUMULUS COULD DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
AND MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE THE NORTHWEST,
ALSO THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES. WE MIX TO
H850 AT MOST LOCATIONS, AND PROGGED TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL GENERALLY
SUPPORT CONTINUITY AND STAT GUIDANCE REGARDING MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER,
MAXIMUMS WERE LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO AT A FEW LOCATIONS BASED ON
15Z TEMPERATURES. QPF VALUES SUGGEST DROPPING THE SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND WITH NO ACTIVITY UPSTREAM, THAT WAS DONE
FOR EVEN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE APPROACHING FRONT, OR PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF FOLLOWED BY
THE FRONT, HAS A DECENT UPPER JET SUPPORTING IT, BUT OTHERWISE THE
MID LEVEL IMPULSE LOOKS WEAK, THE LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALSO
LOOKS WEAK, AND THERE ISNT A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE LOWER
LEVEL WIND FIELD DOES STIFFEN SOMEWHAT, WITH H925 WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 40 KT. OUR POPS FOR TONIGHT CONTINUE TO RUN FROM CHANCE
NORTH TO SUB-CHANCE FAR SOUTH, AND WE CONTINUE, BECAUSE OF THE
H925 FLOW, TO FORECAST A BIT OF A BREEZE AND TEMPS AT OR ABOVE THE
MILDER STAT GUIDANCE.

BECAUSE OF THE DUAL STRUCTURE TO THE BOUNDARY THAT IS APPARENT ON
AT LEAST THE ECMWF, WE CARRY THE POPS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THEN, THERE IS ONLY VERY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND THE SURFACE FLOW IS CATABATIC IN NATURE.
GIVEN THIS, THE PROGGED H850 TEMPERATURES AND THE INDICATION THAT
WE AGAIN MIX TO H850 AT MOST LOCATIONS, WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A
RATHER MILD AND BREEZY DAY. THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ALLOWED US
TO BRING MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS TO TEMPERATURES ABOUT AS MILD AS
INLAND ONES.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AS THE FRONT IS NOW FORECAST TO STALL EITHER IN OR JUST SOUTH OF
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES, DEPENDING UPON WHICH MODEL ONE FAVORS. STAT
GUIDANCE TEMPS ALSO START TO DIVERGE WIDELY, WITH THE MET VALUES
THAT ARE BASED ON THE OLD ETA BEING CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN THE
MAV VALUES. THERE ALSO NOW APPEARS TO BE A SECOND BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH AND TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES AS MID LEVEL ENERGY RIDES BY THROUGH UPSTATE NY. THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH CANNOT BE SAID TO
DISTINGUISH ITSELF AS EITHER VERY STRONG OR WEAK. WE THEREFORE
HAVE MAINTAINED AS MUCH CONTINUITY AS POSSIBLE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, WITH ENERGY BEGINNING TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. WE ARE CARRYING MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE
FAR SOUTH ON THURSDAY THAN CONTINUITY BECAUSE OF SOME MODEL
AGREEMENT ON REPOSITIONING OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY NIGHT, FRIDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY NIGHT. WELL LIKELY HAVE
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN OUR REGION DURING THAT TIME. WITH
COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH, WE MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF FREEZING
PRECIP IN THE POCONOS AND IN SUSSEX COUNTY, NEW JERSEY FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR MAY RETREAT A BIT
ON FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE MAY SEE SOME FREEZING PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND WARREN AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
WEST TO EAST AND IT SHOULD PASS OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY. AFTER SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH
SOME SNOW POSSIBLE UP NORTH, CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE THIS
MORNING WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE SWINGING AROUND TO A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT DIRECTION AT LATE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUFKIT PROFILES SUPPORT ONLY MINOR
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, SO FEW050 AS INSERTED IN THE
TAFS FOR NOW. UPPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, AND WE WILL BE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PART OF THE
SYSTEM. BOTH THE WRF AND THE GFS MODELS HAVE SOME QPF ACROSS THE
AREA AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY, BUT MOS POPS ARE QUITE LOW, SO
PRECIPITATION WAS EXCLUDED FROM THE 12Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
WEAK AND MAINLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REVISIT THE AREA
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. LOW CONDITIONS AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
LATER THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
MOVING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COASTAL LOW WELL OUT TO SEA IS SENDING BACK SOME WINDS AND
WAVES INTO OUR SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING. SEAS WERE STILL 6
FEET AT BUOY 44009 AS OF 15Z, AND MAY DROP BACK A FOOT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SO, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS EVENING, AND IT WILL BRIDGE
ACROSS TO THE ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING.

THE SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE WATERS EVENTUALLY WILL MEAN THAT
THE NRLY AND NWRLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THEN SWITCH AROUND TO SRLY BY THE EVENING. ONCE THE WINDS
SHIFT, THE SPEEDS PICK UP STEADILY AND A SCA FLAG WILL BE REQUIRED
BY THE LATE EVENING (04Z) FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND DEL BAY. THE
COLDER WATER AND WARMER AIR WILL CREATE A MARINE LAYER WHICH MAY
KEEP THE WINDS FROM MIXING THAT WELL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450-451.

&&

SYNOPSIS.../ DELISI
NEAR TERM.../ DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION.../ OHARA
MARINE.../ OHARA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2008

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-261430-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
1030 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ452>455-261430-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1030 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450-451-261430-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
1030 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM
EDT WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.