Winter Weather in Pennsylvania, December 1, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1100 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A WEAKER SECONDARY LOW
OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE IN TANDEM TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS COLD AIR ALOFT
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES BELOW THE MELTING POINT WERE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADVISORY COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WITH ANOTHER BATCH
OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS AND A FEW MESONET SITES STILL BELOW
FREEZING, WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVY UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION EVENT
ENDS WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE CLOSE TO 4 AM BASED ON THE LATEST
00Z MODEL DATA.

LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WAS OVER VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE AREA, AND THERE
WERE AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT FOG AROUND. OBSERVATIONS HAVE THE PRECIP
UPSTREAM ALL THE WAY INTO NORTH CAROLINA. ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL SHOW
THE DRY SLOT WORKING IN BY 12Z MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT, THIS
SHOULD HAPPEN LATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO EXTEND THE RAIN OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE PREDAWN PERIOD ALLOWS US TO EXTEND THE
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG.

DRIVE CAREFULLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CERTAINLY CHECK
THE WEATHER AT YOUR DESTINATION. NICE HAVING YOU IN THE AREA FOR THE
HOLIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK COASTAL LOW IS ABSORBED INTO THE PRIMARY
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND THE SYSTEMS WORKS SLOWLY TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL DELAY THE RUSH OF CAA. THE COLDEST AIR, -12C AT
80H IS OVER THE UPPER PLAINS WHILE -3C AIR REACHES THE COAST.

MONDAY WILL BE A DAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPERATURES BRINGING
IN THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S TO THE VERY MILD UPPER 50S DELMARVA ZONES.

STRUNG-OUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THE CENTER FROM JAMES BAY
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN GULF COASTS STATES. CAA CONTINUES TO EASE
TO THE COAST AND INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP FOR
MAINLY THE OTHER SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE WAVY UPPER AIR TROUGH
IS SLOWLY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A STRONG COMPACT UPPER LOW
DIGS SOUTH TO NEAR CHURCHILL ON THE HUDSON BAY. SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGES NORTHEAST TO PENNSYLVANIA AND SLIDES TO
THE EAST. WILL CLEAR THE WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOWS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND TUESDAYS HIGH
MID 30S TO NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL OF OUR CLIMATE SITES WILL PROBABLY END NOVEMBER BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. BUT ON THIS LAST DAY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER
50S DELMARVA ZONES TO 30 AT MT. POCONO. TOMORROW IS THE FIRST DAY
OF WINTER BUT IT TOO WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT, WE REMAIN ABV
UNTIL THURSDAY. THEN, WELCOME TO WINTER BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE -12C AT 80H IN
THE NEAR TERM FINALLY WORKS INTO WESTERN PA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. BUT BEHIND THE FRONT,
MORE COLD AIR WILL BE PLUNGING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REACH OUR NORTHWEST ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE AIR IS TURNING COLDER. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD EAST AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE LONG TERM
WITH REINFORCED COLD AIR THE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE END OF THE LONG TERM ON SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST ALBERTA
CLIPPER OF THE SEASON WITH QPF NEAR .15 OR JUST ENOUGH FOR OUR
SECOND MEASURABLE SNOW FOR SEASON IN PHL BUT OUR FIRST MEASURABLE
FOR THE OFFICIAL WINTER SEASON.

TEMPERATURES STEADILY DROP OFF, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THICKNESSS REACH 510DAM SUNDAY WITH MINUS 22C AIR AT 80H JUST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

IFR CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED OVER MOST OF OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTS HAD MVFR. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM, EXTENDING FROM A STORM
SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING, WILL AFFECT OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. A QUASI-WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN, DRIZZLE, AND AREAS OF FOG. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH AND WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR BY MID MORNING. A GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY
WILL BE MAINLY DRY, WITH MOSTLY BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUD COVER. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR MONDAY, BUT THESE WERE LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS
THEY MAY NOT DROP VISIBILITIES OR EVEN CEILINGS VERY MUCH, IF AT
ALL.

OUTLOOK...
AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY,
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. A WEAK QUASI-COLD FRONT
MAY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR WEATHER IS GENERALLY EXPECTED
LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL
VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AS THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD
THROUGH THIS TIME, WITH SURFACE REFLECTIONS POSSIBLE (PERHAPS ABOUT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON).

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST
WEDNESDAY, WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ABOUT THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
SEVERAL FRONTS CROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST, A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. THE SECOND, A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES ON MONDAY
WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IN WINDS OR WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
PEAKED AND WILL DROP OFF A BIT OVERNIGHT. THEN, THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
TAKES OVER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN STORM
LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH NO REAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER, THE BEST WINDS
STILL MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
GRADUALLY, COLDER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION TUESDAY ON A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW, BUT BY THEN, THE GRADIENT IS SEEN TO BEGIN WEAKENING.
FOR NOW, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED ONLY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A POSSIBLY STRONG COLD
FRONT IS SEEN TO MOVE PAST THE COAST ABOUT THURSDAY INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
ARRIVING BEHIND IT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING..
AS THE LOW TIDE CYCLE WAS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON, ANOMALIES ROSE
TO 1 TO AROUND 1 1/2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THESE ANOMALIES DID NOT
PRODUCE ANY FLOODING DURING THE DAY, AND SINCE THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
TONIGHT IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDES, NO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED.

ONE AREA THAT DOES BEAR WATCHING, THOUGH, IS THE EASTERN MARYLAND
SHORE, WHERE A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS IS
LIKELY TO CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES. AT THIS TIME, THE GFS SURGE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ANOMALIES LESS THAN A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL
/WHICH WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY TIDAL FLOODING/, BUT THE CBOFS FORECAST
CALLS FOR TIDES TO RISE ABOVE OUR CRITERION FOR MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-
055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE/DELISI/GIGI
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE
AVIATION...RPW
MARINE...RPW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RPW/DELISI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1112 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-020415-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
1112 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ007>010-012>027-PAZ060>062-
067>071-020415-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-
BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
1112 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-020415-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1112 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ470-020415-
WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE FROM 20 TO 40 NM-
1112 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-020415-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
1112 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.