Hail and Damaging Winds in North Dakota, July 28 to 29, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
347 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORT WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN MN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CURRENT LIS ARE ABOUT -8 ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER. BEST MOISTURE SURFACE FLUX CONVERGENCE WAS ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER AND IN WESTERN ND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL CAP
WAS LOCATED ACROSS SD. SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR FAITH SD WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO WESTERN ND. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS SOUTH.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/JET/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
POCKET OF INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER EASTERN ND AT 06Z/29 WHICH SHIFTS
INTO THE EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z/29.  WILL INTRODUCE A LITTLE MORE QPF
IN WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND EASTERN ZONES TUE MORNING. HOWEVER
CAPES WILL BE LOW AT THAT TIME OF THE MORNING. COLD CORE LOW ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS TUE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD FALL IN
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.

NEXT INSTABILITY AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT
AND THU.

&&
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MODELS ARE HAVING TIMING ISSUES FOR THIS PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT WILL
TRY TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE TRUE RIDGE ALOFT
WILL STILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
AND FAIRLY DRY WEATHER. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY
STORMS...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE THE THREAT FOR THUNDER MOVES INTO THE
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
NEAR ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

HOPPES/KELLENBENZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-291200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
1141 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

...MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA...

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM COOPERSTOWN TO BEMIDJI.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
COOPERSTOWN TO FARGO TO FERGUS FALLS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS NORTH OF THE MODERATE
RISK AREA. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
ACROSS THIS AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TG