Tornado and Hail in North Dakota, July 10, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
230 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AND TEMPERATURES. NAM GETS THE NOD IN THE EARLY GOING HANDLING
SURFACE FEATURES BEST THEN MODELS PRETTY CLOSE IN LATER PERIODS.

ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY TO KEEP GOING AS 850MB CONVERGENCE...
MOISTURE FLUX AND WARM ADVECTION IS MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE HIGHEST POPS VCNTY WARM FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN FA WHERE ABOVE PARAMETERS STRONGEST MAINLY DURING
MORNING HOURS. MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ONGOING CONVECTION MAY
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED/STRONGER TOWARDS MORNING. FAIRLY RESPECTABLE
CAPPING SETS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTION SO
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD POPS EAST AND DRY ELSEWHERE. EXPECT PLENTY OF
SOLAR BY AFTERNOON AND PCPN SHIFTS EAST. WITH WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING ALONG WITH MODEST MIXING TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY
PROBLEM RECOVERING TO OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

CONVECTION TONIGHT CONDITIONAL IF SIZABLE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME. IF
SO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...CAPE...SHEAR AND MOISTURE EXISTS FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL. SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST HOWEVER
HOWEVER COULD HAVE RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES IN PLACE FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POPS. WITH
SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX AND THERMAL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL BE A WARM MUGGY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. COULD SEE SOME
RESIDUAL AM POPS AND PROGRESS OF FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHERE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FIRES. FAVORED AREA LOOKS TO BE NEAR SURFACE
LOW TRACK ACROSS FAR NORTH AND A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG COLD FRONT. COOLEST READING WILL RUN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
EAST STILL PRETTY WARM AS CFP ARRIVES LATE.

SATURDAY LOOKS WINDY AND MUCH COOLER WITH SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND
COLUMN COOLS ALTHOUGH WILL STILL BE COOL.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE AND
COLUMN WARMS IN RETURN FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE MOST PART VFR. MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD MVFR
CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. EXPECT
GENERALLY PCPN FREE CONDITIONS

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

VOELKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
537 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-111045-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
537 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM GRAND FORKS TO BEMIDJI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING MORE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

VOELKER