Hail in North Carolina, May 9, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
853 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT
THEN STALL OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT AND
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK BOUNDARY RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST AT 00Z THIS EVENING.
DESPITE LOADS OF INSTABILITY ON THE 00Z MHX SOUNDING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS EITHER MOVED OFFSHORE OR DISSAPATED. AS A
RESULT...WILL DROP EVENING POPS. REMAINDER OF FCST REMAINS
UNCHANGED. SOME PATCHES OF FOG PSBL TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BUT SYSTEM LACKING DEEP MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE
FORCING WHICH SUGGS LTL IF ANY PCPN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHC POP OVR NE FCST AREA IN CASE AN AFTN SHWR POPS UNDER
THE BETTER INSTABILITY WITH SHORT WAVE PASSING OFF MID ATLC COAST.
SUNNY INTERVALS/SEASONABLE TEMPS THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY.

HIGH PRES/MID LVL RIDGING TEMPORARILIY BUILD INTO THE REGION SAT
NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL ALLOW DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS MAINLY M-U50S.

POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE ACRS THE AREA AS UPR LOW
DIVES SE FM OHVLY. SHEAR/HELICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED BY SFC
LOW/WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THRU THE AREA. MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY
BE LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER BUT MOST PARAMETERS
POINT TO AN ACTIVE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE HELP DOWN BY CLOUD COVER
WITH HIGH REACHING THE BLO NORML L-M70S.

STRONG CONVENTION WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WITH FRONT DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. MOD TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL MITIGATE LOW LVL CAA WITH
LOWS MAINLY M50S/L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WRAPARND MOISTURE AND WEAK VORT LOBE ROTG ABOUT THE UPR LOW OFF
DELMARVA WL HELP ROTATE CLOUDS AND PSBLY A FEW SHWRS ACRS THE
AREA MONDAY. OTRW A WIND/COOLISH DAY WITH HIGHS ARND 70.

SFC HIGH PRES/HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR RDG GRADUALLY BUILD EAST AND BRING
A RETURN TO DRIER CONDS AND MODERATING TEMPS TUE/WED. NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE MSVLY THU AND BRINGS BACK PCPN CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SLIM OR NIL
AS INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS LATE THIS EVENING
THEN WINDS DECOUPLING LATE. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME
EAST OVERNIGHT THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FOG/STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z. THE AVIATION GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A PERIOD
OF THIS LATE AND SO DID PREVIOUS FORECASTS SO CONTINUED TREND IN THE
00Z TAFS. THE FRONT WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. CANTT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LACKING SO NO MENTION
IN THE TAFS. THE FRONT WILL SURGE TO SOUTH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG
AND/OR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN AFT
THROUGH EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NW WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ON MON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND WILL DRIFT THROUGH OR STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE A SURGE IN NORTH WINDS TO 20
KT FOLLOWING THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS
AFTER 8Z. THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTH SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE FORMS OVER EASTERN NC. WINDS FOR MOST OF SATURDAY WILL BE
15 KT OR LESS WITH THE DIRECTION DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF THE
FRONT YOU ARE ON (EASTERLY NORTH/WESTERLY SOUTH). LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z...THE FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH OF THE WATERS AS
THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND INCREASE TO
20 IF NOT BRIEFLY TO 25 KT. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BEEF UP
WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME
E/SE AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. I HAVE ALLOWED THE ADVISORIES
FOR THE SOUNDS TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM BUT WILL CONTINUE THEM OVER THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR SEAS AFT 06Z.

A SECOND LOW WILL SLIDE S AND OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT WITH A BRIEF N/NW
SURGE AROUND 20KT. WINDS WILL DROP BACK DOWN...AND THEN SWITCH TO
THE SE BY SUN AFT. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
AREA ON SUN. THE GFS...THE PREFERRED MODEL...SHOWS THE LOW ALONG THE
ILM COAST BY SUN NT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER MORE N OVER THE
CENTRAL NC/VA BORDER. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE SIMILAR...JUST A
DIFFERENCE IN DIRECTION BASED ON THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW. WILL
CONTINUE USING THE GFS WHICH SHOWS WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE
SE...AND THEN SWITCHING TO THE W/NW AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE N OBX
SUN NT. THE NW WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STRENGTHENING SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY REACH STRONG SCA TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. AND WITH STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL ON MON...WILL SEE GUSTY
WINDS INLAND. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF INTO TUE...BUT LOOK
FOR SOME LINGERING SWELL OUT OF THE N TO KEEP SEAS UP N OF HATTERAS.
SINCE OPC WAS NOT FAVORING THE STORM FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE
GFS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOWERED WAVEWATCH SEAS LATER IN THE FORECAST
HAS FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT SCA SEAS THROUGH MID
WEEK UP N.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JME/SJ
MARINE...JME/SJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
425 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-102030-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
425 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL OR STRONG
WINDS OVER 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ103-104-102030-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
425 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL OR STRONG
WINDS OVER 40 MPH.

A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING
FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM CAPE
HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.