Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, May 20, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
219 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE ACROSS FCST AREA THRU THIS EVE. SFC
BASED CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG EXPECTED ALONG AND SE OF MTNS WITH
GOOD SHEAR TO SUPPORT STRONG TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT. LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES THIS AFTN WITH ISOLD GUSTS TO 35 MPH
EXPECTED. FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CLEAR THE S ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
DRYING SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK
VORT LOBE WILL CROSS THE NC MTNS LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
IN NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS GOING NEAR THE TN
BORDER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES DURG
DAY WED WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH FROM THE NW BY LATE
MORNING. HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE S WITH MID 70S N.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER IN THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUE...BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH DEEP UPPER LOWS OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN U.S.
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS UPPER AIR
CONFIGURATION WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE CAROLINAS
IN NW FLOW. NORMALLY YOU WOULD EXPECT NO MAJOR COMPLICATIONS IN A NW
FLOW REGIME OTHER THEN PERHAPS SOME PASSING CONVECTION...BUT COMPLICATIONS
ARISE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY FROM LARGE
UPPER LOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ENTER THE PICTURE. WED NIGHT
SHOULD BEGIN UNEVENTFUL ENOUGH AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION KEEPING SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP A MCS TO THE W
OVER MO ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH MOVES SE.
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE WED NIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THU.
HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS THAT MAKE IT THIS FAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO THE SW MOUNTAINS ON THU. WILL ALLOW FOR THAT WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. THU NIGHT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PLENTIFUL
AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN FACT NAM IS RATHER BULLISH AT DEVELOPING
SHOWERS...BUT WILL USE A COMPROMISE WITH THE GFS WHICH MAINTAINS
THE LOW CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS HINT AT A WEAK WAVE ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING BY ON
FRI SO WILL CONTINUE POPS ON FRI WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS OVER
WESTERN AREAS. CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRI NIGHT
AS WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
RIDGE OVER THE AREA FROM THE N. USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS AND A MODEL BLEND OF GFS/NAM FOR
CLOUD FIELD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH
OVER THE SE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND REMAIN THE
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. I
PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE POPS AND TEMPS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT. THE 12Z GFS DOES DEPICT
SOME PRECIP OVER THE CWA ON SAT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHORT WAVE...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC BASED ON
THE LACK OF OVERALL FORCING. THE REST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE STILL
APPEARS DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL VALUES AND WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS CWA THIS AFTN-EVE EXPECT STRONGER CONVECTION
WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING QUITE STRONG...ESP SE OF MTNS. HAVE VCTS
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...BUT TEMPO TO CATEGORICAL THUNDER WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AS CONVECTION TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 01-02Z. CIG/VSBY SHOULD STAY VFR
OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL SWING NW BEHIND FRONT WITH
DRYING EXPECTED THIS EVE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE MOIST LOW LEVEL NW
FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AT 10-12KTS AFTER MID-MORNING MIXING WED.

OUTLOOK...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON OR
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM KAVL TO KAND. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR SOLID VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
309 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-505>510-
SCZ001>014-019-211915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
309 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>504-211915-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
309 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 327 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
235 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

NCZ033-049-050-201930-
AVERY-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
235 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AVERY...MITCHELL AND NORTHERN
YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF BULADEAN...OR 8 MILES EAST OF
ERWIN...MOVING EAST AT 74 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NEWLAND BY 245 PM EDT.
  BANNER ELK BY 250 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
313 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

NCZ051-052-059-202015-
HAYWOOD-NORTHERN JACKSON-SWAIN-
313 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HAYWOOD...NORTHWESTERN
JACKSON AND SWAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SMOKEMONT TO 5 MILES NORTH OF FONTANA VILLAGE...MOVING EAST AT 44
MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MAGGIE VALLEY BY 330 PM EDT.
  LAKE JUNALUSKA BY 335 PM EDT.
  WAYNESVILLE BY 340 PM EDT.
  BALSAM BY 345 PM EDT.
  SYLVA BY 350 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

KRENTZ