Tornado and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, March 4, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1237 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER...YET WEAKER
COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
15 UTC MESOANALYSIS/REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF
KHSV BUT BACK EDGE OF ROBUST CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING OUT AHEAD OF
FRONT...NOW OVER WESTERN GA. UNSEASONABLY JUICY AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO SPREAD NNWD INTO THE CWFA WITH 60+ DEG F DWPTS INTO THE NC FTHLS.
CATEGORICAL CVRG OF OCNL HVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THE
SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. LAPS INSTABILITY INDICATES A SLOWLY YET WEAKLY
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS DEVELOPING ACRS THE FTLHS/PIEDMONT. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST VALUES...
PERHAPS ON THE ORDER OF 500+ J/KG SPREADING NORTH ALONG THE I-77
CORRIDOR/SC PIEDMONT AND POINTS ESEWD. LLVL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
REMAIN EXPECTEDLY IMPRESSIVE AND AS LEADING EDGE OF DRY AIR ALOFT
WORKS EASTWARD...A TRANSITION TO DISCRETE CELLS IS LIKELY GIVING
RISE TO DAMAGING WIND LIKELIHOOD AND TORNADO POSSIBILITIES. THIS
TRANSITION IS ALREADY APPARENT ACRS WESTERN GEORGIA.

THE 12 UTC OP NAM SOLUTION HAS MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO IT/S TOO SLOW
EVOLUTION OF FRONTAL BAND MOVEMENT OF EARLIER RUNS AND IS ONLY A
HAIR SLOWER NOW WITH IT/S DEPICTION INSTABILITY AXIS OVER ALABAMA
VERSUS REALITY...ALTHOUGH CATEGORICAL PCPN RESPONSE IS LIKELY
LAGGING BASED ON MOVEMENT OF BACK EDGE OF ECHOES ACRS GA.
NONETHELESS...HAVE ALREADY MADE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND
QPF THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD ISOLATED
RUNOFF PROBLEMS ACRS THE MTNS TODAY...BUT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL
KEEP FLOODING PROBLEMS QUITE LIMITED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...FRONT AND ASSOC BAND OF PRECIP WILL PUSH E OF
THE CWA LATE THIS EVE WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE
MTNS. SCT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NC MTNS ALONG THE TN
BORDER AND AS TEMPS COOL OVERNIGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVS BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUM. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SW WED AFTN-EVE. A WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE W THU WITH INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT MODELS
GENERATE INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE.

WITH NO STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR FROM THE N...TEMPS SHOULD STAY MILD
BEHIND THE FRONT WED WITH HIGHS ACTUALLY A CAT OR SO ABOVE AVG. LOWS
THU MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S...THEN SURGE INTO THE MID 60S
THU AFTN ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 60S N AND MAINLY
50S MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 330 AM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD ALIGNMENT. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW SUPPORTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE 00Z
GGEM AND THE 00Z ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS CONTINUED ITS NW/RN TREND WITH
THE SFC BOUNDARY AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW FRI...PLACING IT WELL INLAND
OVER N GA BY 00Z SAT. THE GGEM AND THE GFS HOWEVER...KEEP THE LOW
CENTER ALONG THE ATL COASTLINE WITH THE GFS BEING 6 HRS FASTER. IN
EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH AS SURFACE LAYER WINDS REMAIN NE/LY AS NE WEDGY HIGH
PULLS AWAY. POPS FOR FRI REALLY DIDNT NEED MUCH ADJUSTMENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL. OVERALL CHANCES WERE INCREASED AS
CONFIDENCE IS BETTER NOW...BUT WITH ODD LOOKING ECMWF AND RELATIVE
QPF MIN SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE MTNS AND THE MIDLANDS...LIKELY POPS
WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED JUST YET.

EXPECT H85 THERMAL TROF TO REACH THE MTNS BY 06Z SAT AND WORK EAST
OVER THE CWFA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW COLD WILL BE SUSPECT
GIVEN THE MUCH WARMER ECMWF RUN...BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN -SNSH IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH 12Z...AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THROUGH 18Z. IT STILL DOESNT LOOK LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SAT...UNDER ONE HALF INCH...HOWEVER THE GFS IS
SHOWING A DEEP LAYERED RH TIMEFRAME BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AS H5 TROF
NEARS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RATES. THIS WILL BE MONITORED
THROUGH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO SEE IF THE GFS IS ONTO SOMETHING.

A MODIFIED POLAR HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SE SAT WHICH WILL ENABLE
VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOL SUN AND MIN TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE AND ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS NEXT UPPER WAVE SHOULD REACH THE AREA MON
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE
CHALLENGED ATTM. THE GOING SILENT 20 POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AS IS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS SUN SHOULD CLIMB BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL AFTER A COOLER SAT...AS LLVL WINDS VEER S/LY AROUND MID DAY.
AN EVEN WARMER DAY IS ON HAND MON WITH INCREASING SW/LY FLOW AS A
WEAK HIGH CENTER MEANDERS OVER THE NORTHERN GOM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CRITICAL NEAR TERM WX FOR THE 18 UTC TAF PERIOD WILL ENCOMPASS
TIMING OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL AND ACCOMPANYING CIG/VSBY CHANGES
ALONG WITH TIMING OF A WIND SHIFT DURING THE EARLY TO MID-EVENING
HOURS. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME WIDESPREAD HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL
BAND EASTWARD ACRS THE FA THRU MID/LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
SEPARATE DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CLOSER TO ACTUAL COLD FRONT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITHIN WARM-SECTOR WITH A VEER TO SW THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUED GUSTY BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF CIG RESTRICTIONS AND PERHAPS PRECIPITATION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1130 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-051630-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1130 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON LEADING
TO ISOLATED RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND HIGH WATER AREAS.

AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND IT/S ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR ALOFT...IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MORE ROBUST AND DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY TODAY...AN UNSEASONABLY
MILD AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS TO
GIVE RISE TO THE PROBABILITY THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TORNADO
FORMATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
INTO EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

GAZ010-041630-
RABUN-
1044 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
RABUN COUNTY THROUGH NOON...

AT 1044 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS...EMBEDDED IN A LARGER AREA OF MODERATE RAIN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH ACROSS THE CLAYTON AREA OF RABUN COUNTY. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO GET MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING RAINFALL AT RATES UP TO 3/4
INCH PER HOUR. THIS HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ON LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
ALREADY RECEIVED ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING. DEEP
PONDING OF WATER WILL DEVELOP IN LOW LYING AREAS...AND STREAMS AND
CREEKS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN RAPIDLY RISING THROUGH NOON.

GERAPETRITIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1150 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

GAZ010-017-NCZ052-053-059-062>065-509-SCZ001>003-041800-
BUNCOMBE-GREENVILLE
MOUNTAINS-HABERSHAM-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MACON-NORTHERN JACKSON-OCONEE
MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-RABUN-SOUTHERN
JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
1150 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM CLAYTON TO ASHEVILLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...

AT 1150 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS WERE PRODUCING RAINFALL AT RATES OF 3/4 INCHES PER
HOUR. MANY LOCATIONS FROM CLARKESVILLE TO FRANKLIN TO BREVARD HAVE
ALREADY RECEIVED AROUND TWO INCHES OF RAIN...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP PONDING OF WATER
WILL DEVELOP IN LOW SPOTS ON ROADWAYS...AND DITCHES WILL BECOME
FULL. STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THIS COULD HAPPEN IN ANY LOCATION NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...OR WHEN LIGHTNING
IS OBSERVED NEARBY.

GERAPETRITIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1205 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

SCZ003-006-007-010>012-041745-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE
MOUNTAINS-LAURENS-SPARTANBURG-
1205 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL UPSTATE THROUGH 1
PM EST...

AT 1205 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LING OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF POWDERSVILLE
TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILLIAMSTON TO IVA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FURMAN UNIVERSITY BY 1210 PM EST.
  HONEA PATH BY 1215 PM EST.
  TIGERVILLE BY 1220 PM EST.
  BOYD MILL POND BY 1225 PM EST.
  HICKORY TAVERN BY 1230 PM EST.
  LAURENS BY 1235 PM EST.

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1234 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

NCZ507>510-SCZ003-006-007-041830-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER RUTHERFORD-GREENVILLE
MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
1234 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG...POLK AND RUTHERFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 130
PM EST...

AT 1234 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TRYON TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TRYON TO LAKE ROBINSON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE LURE BY 1240 PM EST.
  SPINDALE BY 1255 PM EST.
  BOSTIC BY 100 PM EST.
  THERMAL CITY BY 105 PM EST.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

HG