Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 7, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
307 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD MAXIMIZE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN TRIGGERING NEAR THE TN
BORDER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...AND COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND INTO
EARLY EVENING BEFORE STEADILY WANING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL RETAIN MOUNTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
EXTENDING OUT INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LAPS
INSTABILITY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH SFC BASED
CAPE VALUES 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...BUT VERY WARM PROFILES SHOULD
GREATLY LIMIT ANY HAIL POTENTIAL. DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL DRY AIR UNDER THE
RIDGE...WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL.

WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MIN TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS LOOK TO BE ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO WARMER TOMORROW
THAN TODAY...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 102 TO 104 IN THE
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SLIGHT DEWPOINT MIXOUT
SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH DRYING TO KEEP THE PIEDMONT BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BEGIN NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASINGLY MOVE OUT OVER THE
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE PIEDMONT...IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE AXIS OF
THE H5 RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. BROAD H5
TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY. AT THE
SFC...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH AN GREAT LAKES LOW WILL
ALLOW DEEP RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
INFLUX MOISTURE AND FALLING HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BIT MORE
CONVECTION EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS. I WILL INDICATE SCHC
TO CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND 10 POPS EAST.

MONDAY...H85 TEMPS AND LLVL THICKNESSES SUPPORTS A FORECAST OF NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOWERING FIELDS SHOULD
RESULT IN A 3-4 DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
LOW/HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THE WARMER
MEMBER OF THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS USED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...I USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED RANGE. WED THROUGH FRI...IT APPEARS THAT THE H5 RIDGE WILL
RETURN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...LLVL THICKNESSES AND H85
TEMPS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE. IN
ADDITION...GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN GREATER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WARM TEMPERATURES AND MILD DWPTS WILL LIKELY ALLOW
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY. I WILL
ADVERTISE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ANTICIPATING WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND GREATER SFC CONVERGENCE
INTO FRI AND SAT WITH A BREAK DOWN IN RIDGING. I WILL USE A BLEND OF HPC
AND MEX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...SUPPORTING TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NC
BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SMOKIES. KAVL WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT...BUT VERY
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIMIT COVERAGE. OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS...FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
SUNDOWN...WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. KAVL REACHED MVFR VSBY
BRIEFLY THIS MORNING...AND A REPEAT LOOKS LIKELY TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG WILL BE EVEN GREATER IF ANY TSRA
ACTIVITY REACHES THE AIRPORT THIS EVENING.

LIGHT W TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF DUE WESTERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS MIXING
DEVELOPS AT KCLT SUNDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP
WITH HEATING LATE SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY KAVL HAS A CHANCE OF SEEING
ANY THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL LOCATION PRIOR TO 18Z...BUT THE
ODDS ARE FAIRLY REMOTE.

OUTLOOK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL START TO BREAK
DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE REASSERTING ITSELF BY MID
WEEK. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED EACH MORNING AROUND
DAYBREAK AT KAVL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR IN WHICH
THEY LAST OCCURRED FOR GSP...CLT...AND AVL.

GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG

SATURDAY  6/7   98 1933
SUNDAY    6/8   97 1933
MONDAY    6/9   98 1914
TUESDAY   6/10  98 1947
WEDNESDAY 6/11  99 1914

CHARLOTTE

SATURDAY  6/7   97 1899
SUNDAY    6/8   99 1899
MONDAY    6/9   98 1899
TUESDAY   6/10  99 1947
WEDNESDAY 6/11 100 1914

ASHEVILLE

SATURDAY  6/7   92 1969
SUNDAY    6/8   91 1969
MONDAY    6/9   92 1993
TUESDAY   6/10  90 1993
WEDNESDAY 6/11  88 1981

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJB
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG
CLIMATE...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
430 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-080830-
RABUN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
430 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
508-510-SCZ001>014-019-080830-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
430 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THESE TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH MODEST HUMIDITY WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH
100 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO FEEL THE HOTTEST...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM 100 TO 105.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008

NCZ053-065-072000-
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
259 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HENDERSON AND SOUTHERN
BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 257 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF ETOWAH...OR 10 MILES WEST OF
HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 9 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FAIRVIEW...
  SKYLAND...MOUNTAIN HOME...MILLS RIVER...HENDERSONVILLE...
  FLETCHER...ETOWAH...EAST FLAT ROCK...DANA AND AVERY CREEK.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008

NCZ058-072015-
GRAHAM-
310 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GRAHAM COUNTY THROUGH 415 PM
EDT...

AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF TAPOCO...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ROBBINSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 8 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SANTEETLAH
  LAKE...TAPOCO...STECOAH...SANTEETLAH...ROBBINSVILLE AND FONTANA
  VILLAGE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
329 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008

NCZ051-072030-
SWAIN-
329 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN SWAIN COUNTY THROUGH 430
PM EDT...

AT 327 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF TAPOCO...OR 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ROBBINSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 12 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FONTANA
  LAKE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

07