Flash Flood in North Carolina, June 14, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
155 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE
MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND ACROSS ALL
BUT THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S BUT FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES DURING
THE AFTERNOON INDICATE ONLY MODEST CAPE VALUES NOT SUPPORTING
SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFT SPEEDS. ATMOSPHERE IS ACTUALLY A BIT ON THE DRY
SIDE ALOFT SO RATHER STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT HAVE A LOT
OF FUEL TO TAP.  HOWEVER... DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AS WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST IN MOUNTAINS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DIURNAL HEATING WILL INCREASE POSSIBILITY
OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE STORMS EAST OF MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES IN WEAK CONVERGENT WIND FLOW. LATE
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WILL MODIFY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLIGHTLY KEEPING THEM NEAR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE AXIS S...WITH BROAD
UPPER TROF N...LEAVES REGION IN ZONAL FLOW SUN AS WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVE OVER CWA. SFC FRONT ALSO MOVES ACROSS S HALF FORECAST AREA
DURING DAY SUN WITH SOLID CHANCE SHWRS/TSTMS THRU THE AFTN. WITH
LOWER THICKNESS AND CLOUD COVER...AFTN HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
AVG. FRONT PUSHES SE OF AREA LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
DIMINISHING BY MID EVE. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL SUN NIGHT AS UPPER
LOW DEEPENS OVER GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...BERMUDA HIGH KEEPS AREA IN S
FLOW SO WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING AND FEWER CLOUDS EARLY MON...TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO AROUND 90 ACROSS PIEDMONT...80S MTNS.
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY AND PUSHES THRU
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING CHANCE SHWRS/TSTMS TO MAINLY THE MTNS MON
AFTN-EVE BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER TROF SETTLES OVER THE E PART OF
THE COUNTRY TUE-FRI WITH COOL...DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW THRU MID WEEK. WITH LOWER THICKNESS VALUES AND NELY
FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEG OF AVG TUE...THEN
SETTLE AT OR BELOW AVG WED-THU BEFORE WARMING A COUPLE DEG FRI AS
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO THE NE AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS HINT AT WEAK SFC BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE NW FRI WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCING EASTWARD ALONG WESTWARD SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS HAS PROMOTED DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.  ELSEWHERE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 5 TO 6K FEET PREVAIL AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... BUT A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL
OCCUR DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST.  DIURNAL HEATING HAS
BEEN THE PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR THE PRECIPITATION... SO IT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT
EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS ALONG WITH MID CLOUD
DEBRIS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NIGHT.  VISIBILITY IN MVFR CATEGORY
WITH LOCAL IFR EXPECTED MOSTLY IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS.

OUTLOOK...VFR WEATHER WILL PREDOMINATE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR WEATHER
WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...LGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-150800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
349 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WITH A SOLID CHANCE SPREADING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY AND
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1155 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

NCZ052-053-059-063>065-141645-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN
JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
1155 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BUNCOMBE...HENDERSON...SOUTHEASTERN
HAYWOOD...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES THROUGH
1245 PM EDT...

AT 1155 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY NORTHEAST
TO BUNCOMBE COUNTY NEAR THE ASHEVILLE AIRPORT. THESE STORMS WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DOWNTOWN
ASHEVILLE..UNC ASHEVILLE...WOODFIN...SWANNANOA...
SKYLAND...ROSMAN...LAKE TOXAWAY...HENDERSONVILLE AND CASHIERS.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

PAT