Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, July 23, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
303 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...AND STALL OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVING CLOSER MODELS SHOW EXCELLENT LIFT
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOOKING AT SREF SEE
POPS OVER 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH PART OF THE CWA. ALSO
LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS GOOD FRONTOGENESIS DEVEOPING AND
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. ALSO CORFIDI VECTORS DO SHOW SOME
BACK BUILDING TONIGHT HELPING TO SLOW THE CONVECTIVE LINES AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE ONE INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING GENERATING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN VA AND WITH HIGH CAPE BUT NOT MUCH SHEAR CAN
EXPECT PULSE SEVERE STORMS. LATER TONIGHT AS THE ANOMOLOUSLY
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO AND SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
HAVE BETTER SHEAR BUT LESS CAPE WITH IT SO STILL NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS EXCEEDING
TWO INCHES WILL SEE HEAVY RAINS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE 70 EAST OF THE FRONT AND IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S TO THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HAVE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. NEXT SHORTWAVE CIRCLING AROUND THIS TROF WILL AFFECT THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. SO EXPECTING DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. IT WILL STILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. WILL TRIM BACK MOS
GUIDANCE MAXES SOME EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE AS A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE ERN
US THRU AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WEAK
SFC FRONTS WILL ROTATE THRU THE AREA AND HAVE CHANCE POPS (30-40%)
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS...WITH 20-30% POPS
DURING EACH NIGHT/MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S/LWR 90S...WITH LOWS IN
THE UPR 60S/LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCRG THROUGHOUT THE AREA FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CURRENT ACTIVITY AFFECTING RIC AND ECG SO
HAVE TEMPO MVFR...AS CNVCTN SPREADS EAST HAVE MVFR ALL OTHER SITES
BEGINNING 20-21Z. FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THRU CENTRAL VA OVERNIGHT
BEFORE STALLING ALONG COAST THURS AM. PRECIP WILL AFFECT MOST SITES
OVERNIGHT SO PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR LIKELY UNTIL FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW HAS DEFINITELY INCREASED TODAY AHEAD OF THE
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST OBS SHOWING WINDS AOA SCA
CRITERIA OVER THE BAY/SND AND COASTAL WATERS. SCA WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AFTERWARDS WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH A WEAKENING
GRADIENT AS THE FRONT INCHES TOWARDS THE COAST.

WAVE WATCH III HAS BEEN OVERDOING SEAS/WAVE HEIGHTS AND BASED ON THE
LATEST BUOY OBS (2 TO 3 FT IN THE SRN WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT IN THE
NRN WATERS) HAVE ACCORDINGLY LOWERED FCST WAVE HEIGHTS. WAVES/SEAS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD THOUGH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...PEAKING AT 5 TO 6 FT OVER THE NRN MOST COASTAL ZONES AND 4
TO 5 FT OVER THE SRN ZONES. WAVES WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT IN THE BAY.
WAVES/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE EARLY THURSDAY AS WINDS SLACKEN
OFF. WAVE PERIODS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 6 SECONDS AS WAVES/SEAS WILL
BE PRIMARILY WIND DRIVEN AND LOCALLY GENERATED.

SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR A FEW HRS LONGER ON THURSDAY BUT
LEFT AS IS FOR NOW BASED ON PROJECTED TIMING OF DIMINISHING WIND
FIELD. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MARGINAL SCAS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR VAZ063-064-
     070>078-080>100.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>062-065>069-079.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>633-
     656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...JRL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
155 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-231900-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARGARETTSVILLE...AHOSKIE...
ELIZABETH CITY...EDENTON...COROLLA
155 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...

AT 150 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA. THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR
AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED. TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE PREPARED FOR
RAPID CHANGES IN WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SAMMLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
225 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

NCZ012-013-VAZ092-231915-
HERTFORD NC-NORTHAMPTON NC-SOUTHAMPTON VA-
225 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

AT 225 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SOLID LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BOYKINS TO 12 MILES WEST OF RICH SQUARE...OR FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BOYKINS TO 5 MILES EAST OF HALIFAX...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BOYKINS AROUND 240 PM EDT...
  RICH SQUARE AROUND 245 PM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. IF YOU HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO
A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS
UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL RESULT IN PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

44

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
303 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

VAZ095>098-232000-
CHESAPEAKE VA-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH VA-SUFFOLK VA-VIRGINIA BEACH VA-
303 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

AT 303 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SOLID LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
KEMPSVILLE TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN SUFFOLK...OR FROM 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEMPSVILLE TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HOLLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 14 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NEAR...
  GREAT BRIDGE AROUND 310 PM EDT...
  DEEP CREEK AROUND 335 PM EDT...
  VIRGINIA BEACH OCEANFRONT AROUND 345 PM EDT...
  DOWNTOWN SUFFOLK AROUND 350 PM EDT...
  KEMPSVILLE AROUND 355 PM EDT...
  DOWNTOWN PORTSMOUTH AROUND 400 PM EDT...

EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IF YOU
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN
INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

44