Large scale ascent increased over the southeast during the overnight hours as a large upper trough over the central plains moved east towards the region. A 50 to 60 knot southerly low-level jet raced eastward ahead of the main trough, spreading Gulf of Mexico moisture north into the Carolinas.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Large scale ascent increased over the southeast during the overnight hours as a large upper trough over the central plains moved east towards the region. A 50 to 60 knot southerly low-level jet raced eastward ahead of the main trough, spreading Gulf of Mexico moisture north into the Carolinas. Organized convection developed in the coastal plain region as the airmass became increasingly unstable as surface dew points rose into the lower to middle 60s.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 18, 2:45 AM EST, 5 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 245 AM EST MON FEB 18 2008 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY... AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF COAST REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 230 AM MONDAY... THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS IN EASTERN TN AND KY AT THIS HOUR. ANY CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME INITIALLY MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS... THEN BE OFFSET BY WSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW TODAY. PRE FRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET ARE ONGOING TONIGHT. THESE SHOULD BE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY DAYBREAK. DESPITE SBCAPES INCREASING TO BETWEEN 400 AND 800 J/KG FROM ABOUT THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD THROUGH ABOUT 15Z OR SO... THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AS LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AND STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THERE COULD BE RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY... BEHIND THE CURRENT PRE FRONTAL LINE... AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXPECT THAT ANY THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA WOULD BE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN... CLOSEST TO THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY IN EASTERN NC... WITH JUST SHOWERS TO THE WEST. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TRIAD BY 15Z.. THE TRIANGLE BY 18Z... AND OUT OF THE COASTAL PLAIN BY ABOUT 20Z. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT... SO HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING ABOUT 63 NW TO 70 SE... DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS... AS SUBSIDENT DRYING TAKES PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID/UPPER WAVE. -MWS && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 AM MONDAY... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED POSITIVE PNA PATTERN FEATURING A DEEP CENTRAL AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH AND WEST COAST RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD. A STRONG PACIFIC JET WILL CASCADE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BENEATH THE WESTERN RIDGE... AND SET UP A REX BLOCKING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS WILL SERVE TO SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONTS INTO CENTRAL NC. TONIGHT: LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE... DRYING... AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE THE PASSAGE OF TODAYS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST OVERNIGHT... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL INTO THE 1290S TO AROUND 1300 METERS BY TUESDAY MORNING... WHICH WILL SEND MORNING LOWS TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 40 SE... NOTICEABLE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER MINNESOTA THIS MORNING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MEAN EASTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL PROPEL A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. INITIALLY SUNNY SKIES TURN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MOISTENING MID LEVEL TROUGH. A DEEP DRY ADIABATIC MIXED LAYER TO AROUND 800 MILLIBARS IS EXPECTED LIFT AND COLD ADVECTION (CENTERED AROUND H7) ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY SERVE TO FURTHER DEEPEN THE (NEAR) DRY ADIABATIC LAYER. AROUND 40 KNOT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL MIX DOWN AND PRODUCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. DRY ADIABATIC MAX TEMP TECHNIQUE YIELDS HIGHS FROM 47 NW TO 53 SE... SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CONSENSUS MOS. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST US EXTENDS BACK INTO OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE DESPITE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH... SENDING LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER 20S. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN NOAM L/W TROUGH... SENDING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BRIEF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SEND HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. A 1035 MB BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS... BENEATH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL SEND A FRESH CP AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING. IN FACT... PER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF... LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PLUMMET INTO THE 1260S TO 1280S OVER CENTRAL NC BY 12Z THURSDAY (1240S IF YOU BUY THE 00Z/18TH NAM/WRF). THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS AND EURO... WHICH WOULD MEAN LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. OF A LITTLE CONCERN IS THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF SPIT OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT AS THICKNESSES CRASH AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INVADES OVERNIGHT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE DEPTH FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH... BUT THE INCREASINGLY SUBSATURATED LOW LEVELS GIVEN THE STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION WOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN A FLURRY... AND THAT WOULD BE A STRETCH. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH DRIER... HARDLY GENERATING CLOUDS... MUCH LESS PRECIP. WILL ACCORDINGLY CONTINUE A DRY... PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST. THURSDAY: LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WITH CLASSIC CAD AND FULL SUN SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. EXPECT THAT INCREASINGLY ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE CAD WEDGE... COURTESY OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTTING UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN RIDGE... WILL PROMOTE INCREASING CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUS... THESE HIGHS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC. PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.. LITTLE TIME HAS BEEN DEVOTED TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY. AFTER ONLY A CURSORY GLANCE... IT WOULD APPEAR THAT WE COULD HAVE SOME P-TYPE PROBLEMS BY FRIDAY. WILL LET THE DAY CREW ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL. -MWS && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY... MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK... BUT STILL DIFFER ON NUMEROUS SUBTLE DETAILS. FIRST OFF... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME TOWARD A SOLUTION SHOWING A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF A WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE AND AN EASTERN TROUGH. MEANWHILE... IT APPEARS AS IF PACIFIC ENERGY WILL UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THURSDAY... STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES IN MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE MERGING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JETS. THIS SERVES TO ANCHOR A RATHER STRONG (1035+ MB) SFC HIGH. THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ULTIMATELY PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS/ECMWF DO DIFFER ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR IS ABLE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY FOR THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT... THE MODELS GO SEPARATE WAYS IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE PACIFIC ENERGY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT VIA A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. A SOLUTION RELYING ON SUCH A SMALL SCALE FEATURE IS TREATED WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SKEPTICISM THIS FAR OUT. ON THE OTHER HAND... THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE RETURN FLOW AND WAITS TO DEVELOP BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PRECIP UNTIL THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OFF OF THE EAST COAST. THIS APPEARS A BIT MORE REASONABLE... THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING PROHIBITS ANYTHING MORE THAN A LOW END CHANCE MENTION OF PRECIP... BUT WILL INCLUDE A 30 POP FRIDAY INTO MOST OF THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODIFYING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 830 PM SUNDAY... MVFR CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST... MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE AREA AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST...INT/GSO BEFORE MIDNIGHT... AND OVER THE EAST AROUND 07Z. THE CURRENT TREND WOULD HAVE THE PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF IN THE WEST BETWEEN 09-11Z AND IN THE EAST BETWEEN 12-15Z. AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST... THERE IS A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE EAST... THUS A CB HAS BEEN ADDED TO RWI AND FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. SOUNDING DATA INDICATES WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE... THUS TURBULENCE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON RETURNING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS A BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY COULD GIVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SYNOPSIS...BSD NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...JFB AVIATION...RHJ
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 619 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008 NCZ007-021>024-038-039-073-074-083-181000- PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY- MONTGOMERY-ANSON- 619 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS. NCZ008>011-025>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-181000- GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE- CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-RICHMOND- SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 619 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE LESSEN SOME FROM EARLIER INDICATIONS...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 70 MPH. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 11 PM TO 6 AM. ALONG THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR...AND BETWEEN 1 AM AND 7 AM ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ASIDE FROM ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 110 AM EST MON FEB 18 2008 NCZ088-089-180645- CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 110 AM EST MON FEB 18 2008 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SAMPSON AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 145 AM EST... AT 110 AM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HOPE MILLS...OR ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTH OF FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...VANDER...AND... FAYETTEVILLE...EASTOVER...AND...STEDMAN...WADE...FALCON...AND... GODWIN...SPIVEYS CORNER. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. WSS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 201 AM EST MON FEB 18 2008 NCZ042-077-078-085-086-088-089-180815- JOHNSTON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SMITHFIELD...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO... LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 201 AM EST MON FEB 18 2008 ...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SANDHILLS AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH 3 AM EST... A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH ACROSS SECTIONS OF CUMBERLAND...NORTHERN SAMPSON...SOUTHERN JOHNSTON...AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF SCOTLAND AND HOKE COUNTIES THROUGH 3 AM. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...STRONG ENOUGH TO DOWN A FEW TREE LIMBS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL OCCUR WITH THE STORMS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL TRACK CLOSE OR JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF FAYETTEVILLE...AND NEAR NEWTON GROVE AND MOUNT OLIVE. WSS
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 47 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 07:49 UTC.
2 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Penny size hail was reported by local law enforcement on Harnett Dunn Highway between Old Crow Road and Denning Road.
Trained spotter reported minor damage to vehicles from half dollar size hail.
A few power lines were reported blown down across Boykin Bridge Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2008Every state in 2008This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, February 2008
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 79455, 79456, 79457.