Flash Flooding in North Carolina, August 17, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
130 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AS
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EVER SO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT. A POTENT S/W ALOFT AND WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT WILL SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
HENCE...A QUICK UPDATE WAS MADE TO THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.

EVEN THOUGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE L-M60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH
MAINLY 50S MTNS. SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST S OF CWA SUN WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTN...MAINLY S CWA NEAR BETTER
MOISTURE ALONG BOUNDARY. AFTN HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE M-U80S WITH
U70S-L80S MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...I WILL FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE SHORT
RANGE PERIOD. ON MONDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A WEAKNESS IN THE H5 HEIGHTS. OVERALL
FORCING SHOULD BE VERY WEAK ACROSS THE CWA...LIMITING AND FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION WILL EXIST BETWEEN H6-H7. I
WILL FORECAST ONLY POCKETS OF SCHC COVERAGE MON AFTERNOON FOR
SHRA/TSRA. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD SHOULD PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF
CENTRAL FL...BASED ON LATEST NHC TRACK. CONVECTION AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A OLD BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD...APPROACHING THE PIEDMONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY/S PROFILES. BASED ON
THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE OLD BOUNDARY...I WILL INCREASE POPS TO
CHC ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SCHC
ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY PEAK AROUND 90 BEFORE THICKER CLOUD
COVER ARRIVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SATURDAY...THE NHC TIMING AND PLACEMENT ON T.S. FAY AND
THE 12Z GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. I WILL POPULATE THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY GRIDS WITH HPC GUIDANCE DUE TO THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF FAY SHOULD RESULT IN AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES INTO GEORGIA. EXTENDED RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN MOTION OF FAY MAY SLOW
CONSIDERABLY FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HPC POP GUIDANCE CONTINUES A MENTION
OF CHC COVERAGE DURING THE SAT PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED TRACK AND TIMING WOULD YIELD
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK BNDRY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. STRONG STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BNDRY BETWEEN KHKY AND KCLT. STORMS WILL
LIKELY BUILD BACK INTO KHKY THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. I THINK THEY WILL
STAY NORTH OF KCLT...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. MANY SITES WILL SEE FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
IT FROM BECOMING DENSE.

LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF CU WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT I
WON/T INCLUDE CB/S QUITE YET AS IT LOOKS A LITTLE MORE STABLE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SFC FRONT REMAINS JUST S OF AREA MON. PRECIP CHANCE
APPEARS MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TROPICAL STORM FAY MAY APPROACH
FROM THE S AROUND MID WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...ARK/RB
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
317 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-171930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
317 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
PENNIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1120 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

NCZ068-070-170400-
CLEVELAND-GASTON-
1120 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CLEVELAND AND
NORTHWESTERN GASTON COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT EDT...

AT 1111 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHERRYVILLE...OR 7 MILES
EAST OF SHELBY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 13 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CHERRYVILLE BY 1135 PM EDT.

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1148 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E GREENWOOD           34.19N 82.10W
08/16/2008                   GREENWOOD          SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY RECEIVED REPORTS OF DOWNED POWER LINES AND ONE
            TREE DOWN ALONG HWY 34 JUST EAST OF GREENWOOD.

&&

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1149 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

NCZ036-056-170445-
CATAWBA-IREDELL-
1149 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL IREDELL AND EASTERN
CATAWBA COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 AM EDT...

AT 1141 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF
STATESVILLE TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAIDEN...MOVING EAST AT 12 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LOOKOUT
  SHOALS LAKE...TROUTMAN...TERRELL...STATESVILLE...SCOTTS...NEWTON...
  MAIDEN...CLAREMONT AND CATAWBA.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. THESE STORMS WERE ALSO PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...IN EXCESS
OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1259 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

NCZ036-056-170600-
CATAWBA-IREDELL-
1259 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA AND
SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 200 AM EDT...

AT 1253 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF TERRELL...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF
STATESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 9 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MOORESVILLE BY 135 AM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
113 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

NCZ068-170600-
CLEVELAND-
113 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTY
THROUGH 200 AM EDT...

AT 114 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF POLKVILLE...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SHELBY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 13 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  POLKVILLE...LAWNDALE...KINGSTOWN...FALLSTON AND BELWOOD.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND MAY FLOOD SOME LOW LYING
AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS
AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF
THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

MOVE INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO
UNPLUG UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

NCZ068-503>508-170800-
CLEVELAND-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHELBY...MORGANTON...MARION...
LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD
159 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...

AT 155 AM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM MOORESVILLE TO SUNSHINE TO MARION.
THESE STORMS WERE DRIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTH. TORRENTIAL
RAIN IS FALLING WITH THESE STORMS...AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE UP
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND PEA SIZED HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

MCAVOY