Damaging Wind in North Carolina, April 27, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTH NORTHEAST...A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON
MONDAY. IN ITS WAKE...A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS THEN WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUR SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH OUR AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...SFC BOUNDARY OVER CWA AND WEAK FORCING
ALOFT...SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVE. WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS CWA INTO THIS EVE
AND FOR MOST OF AREA OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY SATURATED
COLUMN WHILE FREEZING LEVEL SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SO A FEW STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL ARE PSBL. ALTHOUGH COOLING WILL BE SLOW...LOOK FOR
MORNING LOWS AROUND 60 WITH 50S MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...BRINGING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT MAY HANG UP ACROSS THE MTNS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD MARCH EAST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES UNTIL THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA MON EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH AN AREA OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE/PRECIP POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWS.

DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN BY MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS ACROSS THE MTNS WED MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...THE ELONGATED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE US WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
DURING THE PERIOD. A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE LAST FEW LONG RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A WEAKER FEATURE. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH MAX TEMPS AT ABOUT 80 IS STILL EXPECTED THRU FRIDAY. SATURDAY
LOOKS A BIT COOLER...BUT OF COURSE THIS DEPENDS ON WHETHER OR NOT
THIS FRONTAL FEATURE HAS MUCH STRENGTH.

IN TERMS OF PRECIP...THE FORECAST IS DRY UNTIL A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS REACHES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. COVERAGE OF THE
SHRA/TSRA WILL EXPAND EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES. STAYED
WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AND WAS HESITANT TO GO ANY
HIGHER UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE FRONTAL STRENGTH AND
OVERALL DYNAMIC FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK UPPER FORCING...DEEP MOISTURE AND SFC BOUNDARY OVER CWA
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHWRS AND LOW CLOUDS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED INTO THIS EVE. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED AFT 19-20Z. ONCL VFR CIGS
LIKELY THRU THIS EVE...UNTIL THEY GO SOLID MVFR LATE EVE...THEN IFR
THRU MUCH OF MON MORNING. FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THRU FROM THE W
DURG DAY MON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS. HAVE WINDS
SWINGING NW AT KAVL AFT 15Z.

OUTLOOK...FRONT WILL PUSH THRU BY LATE MON...THEN VFR THRU MID WEEK
MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL THU-FRI MORNINGS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2008

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-282015-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
401 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING. ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 30S AND 40S TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
MAINLY ABOVE 4000 FEET. EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-282015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
401 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING HAIL AS
LARGE AS QUARTERS...AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT ON MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF I-77...MAINLY DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     HAIL             5 NNE SIMPSONVILLE      34.80N 82.23W
04/27/2008  E0.75 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             1 SE ROEBUCK            34.87N 81.95W
04/27/2008  E1.00 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
419 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E ROEBUCK             34.88N 81.86W
04/27/2008                   SPARTANBURG        SC   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            TREE DOWN ACROSS ROAD IN CROFT STATE NATURAL AREA.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
426 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2008

SCZ013-014-272115-
CHESTER-UNION-
426 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN UNION AND WESTERN
CHESTER COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 421 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF CARLISLE...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF UNION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 27 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE SIMPSONVILLE      34.80N 82.23W
04/27/2008                   GREENVILLE         SC   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. SHUTTERS TORN OFF HOUSE AND SCREENS
            RIPPED OUT OF PORCH. DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
456 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2008

SCZ009-014-272200-
CHESTER-YORK-
456 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CHESTER AND YORK
COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 451 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF LOWRYS...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 33 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO YORK...ROCK
  HILL...MCCONNELLS AND LOWRYS.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY