Hail in North Carolina, April 20, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1247 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
TODAY...THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE SE INTO NC TODAY...THE COMBINATION
OF IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND LOW AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES THANKS TO
HEATING AND COOLING MID-LVL TEMPS...WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED TSTMS COULD ALSO BE SEEN ACRS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWFA WHERE THE COOLEST MID-LVL TEMPS WILL ROTATE ACRS.
VERY LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HAIL
PRODUCING TSTMS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKS EXPECTED TO MADE TO
GOING SKY AND TEMP GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT WITHOUT CLOUD COVER TO HOLD THEM UP...AND WEAK
COLD ADVECTION OFFSET BY WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW. THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NC
MONDAY...THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE GFS THOUGH. BOTH MODELS MOVE THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TO NEAR THE COASTAL NC/SC BORDER BY LATE MONDAY...THEN INTO THE
ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE THE LOW INTO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWFA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LEADS TO
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY. CHANCE DECREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT. BEST PRECIP CHC WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A
MORGANTON...HICKORY...STATESVILLE TO CONCORD LINE. SLIGHT CHC POP
ALMOST MAKES IT TO I-26 MONDAY EVENING. TEMPS LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE CLOUDS...PRECIP AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
STILL...LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENUF FOR SOME MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...SO WILL ADD THUNDER WORDING FOR THE AFT/EVE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AS LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP
INTO THE AREA ON NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH STRENGTHENS AS WELL. MODELS CANNOT QUITE AGREE
ON TIMING FOR LIFT AND PRECIP...SO USED MODEL BLEND. THIS PRODUCES
SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS THE I-40 AND I-77 CORRIDORS...WITH SOME
UPSLOPE PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE NC/SC BORDER.
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAINING. HIGHS COOL FROM MONDAY OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AND EASTERN UPSTATE. RIGHT NOW...HAVE HIGHS
RISING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE...NE GA AND NC MTNS.

MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DECREASES AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEAKENS. MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT TO THE WEST IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
ARRIVING. WILL REMOVE POP. LOWS REMAIN QUITE MILD ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH A FLAT
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHORT WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...THEN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA. THEN SHORT WAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY THEN SFC
HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING...KEEPING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO OUR WEST WHILE THE GFS ALLOWS MORE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE FOR
POPS. THIS MEANS DIURNAL SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE NC MTNS WED AND THU.
THEN CHC MTN POP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER AROUND KCLT THROUGH MID OR LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR LVL CU WILL BE SEEN ELSEWHERE ACRS THE
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. DRIER LLVL AIR SPREADING INTO THE NC PIEDMONT
WILL CAUSE SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DIMINISH BEFORE EARLY EVENING AND
ELSEWHERE...DIMINISHING HTG TOWARD SUNSET WILL CAUSE SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER ACRS WESTERN NC MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH DRY CONDS ACRS THE FA ON TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY ACRS THE NC MTNS...WILL
BE SEEN BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CSH/JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1204 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ008-009-211615-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-CHEROKEE-YORK-
1204 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
FROM 30 TO 40 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-
505-507-509-SCZ001>007-010>014-019-211615-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1204 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
105 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

NCZ071-072-082-201800-
CABARRUS-MECKLENBURG-UNION-
105 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MECKLENBURG...NORTHERN
UNION AND SOUTHERN CABARRUS COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

AT 102 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST NORTH OF MINT HILL...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF UNC CHARLOTTE...MOVING EAST AT 6 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MIDLAND BY 135 PM EDT.

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

MCAVOY