Hail and Damaging Winds in New York, June 29, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1011 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...TRACK JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY TODAY THEN LIFT OUT INTO
QUEBEC ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOIST AIR CIRCULATING AROUND THIS
SYSTEM WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME CLEARING ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EARLY
MORNING PACKAGE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WAS FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE WE HAD CHANCE POPS RIDING FOR TODAY SINCE YESTERDAYS
FORECAST. IT HAS BECOME MORE APPARENT THAT THE SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL LAKES WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE UPPED THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS
AREA TO MATCH THE REST OF THE CWA WHERE JET DYNAMICS AND MORE
INSTABILITY ARE A CONCERN.

ADDING TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AT LEAST FOR SITES SOUTH
AND EAST OF BUFFALO...WILL BE A LAKE ERIE BREEZE BOUNDARY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM. THIS SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS OF CONVECTION OVER THE
FINGER LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER.

WHILE PWATS WILL BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (1.5 VS 2.0)...THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ONCE AGAIN OUTLINED ALL OF
WRN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL BE A BIT LOWER TODAY (10K FT VS.
14K)...BUT THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE LOWER PWATS WITH A STRONGER H7 FLOW WILL ALSO
TRANSLATE INTO A LOWER THREAT FOR HYDRO PROBLEMS.

FOR TONIGHT THE CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF DURING THE COURSE OF THIS
EVENING AS THE JET DYNAMICS AND ENHANCING SHORTWAVES WILL PULL OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER.
FURTHER DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LEAVING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WILL
BE SOME 5-8 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS QUEBEC...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WILL BRING COOL AIR ALOFT. THIS
WILL DESTABILIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. WENT WITH THE SREF TO
DEPICT THE INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE
SHALLOW AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER DYNAMICS OR SIGNIFICANT
CAPE OR NEG LIFTED INDICES...SO WILL GO FOR GREATEST LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWERS WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...RATHER COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE ON MONDAY
WHERE READINGS MAY NOT GET ABOVE 70...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE WHERE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN SOONER.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE STUBBORN TROUGH DIMINISHES.

THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL RETURN AGAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT
MAINLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES TO EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING AN END OF THE
PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A RETURN OF WARMER AIR ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK TO THE 80S WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING AND CROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE. GFS SHOWS THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY
ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN SOUTHERN
TIER AND MVFR CIGS OF 2500 FT WILL BE FOUND EAST OF LK ONTARIO UNTIL
ABOUT 14Z OR SO. AFTER THAT POINT...KJHW WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS OF 2500 FT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE VFR CIGS.

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THERE
WILL THE CHANCE FOR MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TSRA. THIS WILL MAINLY BE
THE CASE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER...THE GENESEE VALLEY
AND PARTICULARLY THE FINGER LAKES REGION. IN FACT...THE CONVECTION
COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. SITES
MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY SUCH CONVECTION INCLUDE KJHW AND KROC.

THE CONVECTION WILL THEN DIE DOWN NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET EARLY
TONIGHT. THE ENDING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
CIGS...WITH CIGS OF 3500 FT OR SO IN MOST AEREAS DROPPING TO 1500
FT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOTH DAYS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING LOW TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...RSH/SAGE
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...WCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
410 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-300815-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
410 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR STRAIGHT LINE
DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-300815-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
410 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...INCLUDING LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS...WITH A LESSER
CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1250 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

NYZ019-085-292000-
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1250 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NEAR ERIE
PENNSYLVANIA. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL PASS OVER THE
SHERMAN, MAYVILLE, WESTFIELD, AND BROCTON AREAS BETWEEN 1 AND 145
PM. THESE STORMS CAN PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, STRONG WINDS,
AND POSSIBLY HAIL. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
MOVING INTO THE NORTH COLLINS AREA OF SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY.