Wildfire in New Mexico, May 1 to 11, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 PM MDT WED APR 30 2008

.UPDATE...
WILL LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE ACROSS THE EAST. SIERRA BLANCA STILL
HAS HIT CRITERIA WITHIN THE LAST HOUR...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT
MAY SPORADICALLY HIT CRITERIA OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL IMPACTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL...AND WILL LET THE FOCUS BE THE MAIN EVENT TOMORROW.

HAVE ALSO REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE SAN JUANS TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF THE PRECIP REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH.  DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP IN OUR AREA TONIGHT.

RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRED ON TIME TONIGHT AT 11 PM...AND RED FLAG
WARNING FOR TOMORROW ALL ZONES STILL LOOKS GOOD.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...759 PM MDT WED APR 30 2008...
WILL GO AHEAD AND LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN... WESTERN...AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AT 8 PM. WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY THRU MIDNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOME INDICATION THAT THESE WINDS MAY
LET UP BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND IF THIS OCCURS... MAY EXPIRE THE WIND
ADVISORY EARLY. HIGH WIND WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THURSDAY.
UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

34

.PREV DISCUSSION...249 PM MDT WED APR 30 2008...
INHERITED FORECAST TRENDS LOOKED REASONABLE AND I
DID NOT ALTER MUCH BASED ON TODAYS ACTIVITY AND LATEST MODEL
DATA. UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL FORECAST TO
SLIDE ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY. THE TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AND EXPECTED
EXCELLENT MIXING EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
EFFICIENT TRANSLATION OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE.

THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY WINDY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
ALL OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. THEREFORE...WE HAVE OPTED TO
EXPAND THE COVERAGE AREA OF THE PREVIOUS HIGH WIND WATCH TO INCLUDE
MORE OF THE STATE. NOT ALL OF THESE AREAS WILL MEET HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA TOMORROW...AND SOME WILL ONLY BE UPGRADED TO WIND
ADVISORIES. NEVERTHELESS...THIS SHOULD PROVE TO BE ONE OF THE
WINDIER DAYS THIS YEAR.

SOME MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY LEAD
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WAS HANDLED
WELL IN THE INHERITED FORECAST. WINDS ABATE ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY IN MANY LOCALES.

NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE THE STATE BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY. MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE RELATIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS PATTERN SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR THE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. WE MAY SEE SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND RELATED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A
POSSIBILITY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM
SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE PATTERN
SUGGESTING THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AT THIS
TIME...THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF COOLEST AIR AND INSTABILITY. FOR
THE TIME BEING...WILL KEEP MODEST POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD PENDING BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALL AIRPORTS. WIDESPREAD
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS OF 3-6 MILES ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
LOCAL MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
MTNS AS SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101>109.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ002>007-009>013-016>021-026.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
352 PM MDT WED APR 30 2008

NMZ001>021-026-011200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
352 PM MDT WED APR 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RED FLAG
WARNING STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

THIS SAME AREA IS ALSO UNDER A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL AT LEAST 8 PM
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 45
AND 55 MPH. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NON PRECIPITATION WARNING
STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE KICKED UP BY THE STRONGER
WINDS. A PORTION OF THE AREA EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR HAS THE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THURSDAY...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REACH BETWEEN 25 AND
45 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH IN MANY AREAS. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RED
FLAG WARNING STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST NON PRECIPITATION WARNING STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

FRIDAY...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
VERY LOW HUMIDITIES SHOULD ALSO PERSIST WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.