Hail and Damaging Wind in New Jersey, July 18, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
418 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD MEANDER MAINLY
NORTH OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN
FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND, PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST HOWEVER DURING MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISTURBANCES TO TRACK ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MEANDER TO OUR NORTH, WHICH IS NOW LOCATED
ROUGHLY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO, THEN BACK
TO THE MIDWEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING JUST OFF THE
COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

PLENTY OF HOT CONDITIONS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS
HAVE COME UP AS ADVERTISED, HOWEVER A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND WAS
NOTED AT SOME REPORTING SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR
FROM ALOFT MIXED DOWN. DESPITE THIS, THERE IS A NOTED INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MOST AREAS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.
GIVEN THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING, HAS ALLOWED SOME CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. THE LOW-LEVEL FRONT
THAT EDGED INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS YESTERDAY AND TEAMED UP WITH A
MID LEVEL FEATURE HAS MOVED FARTHER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A TRIGGER AROUND, CONVECTION SHOULD BE
LIMITED INTO THIS EVENING. WE WENT WITH A 20 POP FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA AS THE THINKING
IS TERRAIN SHOULD MAINLY BE THE TRIGGER /A CELL OR TWO POPPED UP
NORTH OF YORK, PENNSYLVANIA A LITTLE EARLIER/. THE FOCUS FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
THE WEAK FLOW CONTRIBUTES TO TERRAIN INDUCED CIRCULATIONS.

FOLLOWING ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION, A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH SOME HAZE AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG. THE CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
TONIGHT. ANY LOWER DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY RECOVER THROUGH THE
EVENING AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS SOME THETA-E
ADVECTION UP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
POPPED EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WHILE THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ANY
TRUE FORCING TO LATCH ONTO IS DIFFICULT TO FIND. AS A RESULT, WE
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AS WE REMAIN ON
THE BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING. THE OVERALL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL PULL IN SOME MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONCE AGAIN DECENT MIXING POTENTIAL IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, THEREFORE SOME DEW POINTS MAY DROP SOME DURING
PEAK HEATING BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED. THE 12Z
RAOB FROM STERLING, VIRGINIA INDICATED AN 850 MB TEMPERATURE OF
+17C /63F/ AND 925 MB TEMPERATURE OF +23C /73F/. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO NOT CHANGE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
SATURDAY, THEREFORE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THIS AFTERNOONS.

THIS HEAT EVENT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND THE HEAT INDICES THAT
WE ARE COMING UP WITH TOP OUT AT ABOUT 100 DEGREES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS. DUE TO THE LENGTH OF THIS
HEAT, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS. THE HOT CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
WILL NOT BACK OFF A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT AT NIGHT IN THE HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS AS OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 75 DEGREES.
THIS, COUPLED WITH THE BUILDINGS RETAINING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AT
NIGHT, POINTS TO KEEPING THE WARNING GOING. ON SUNDAY, THERE ARE
SOME UNCERTAINTIES THAT BECOME INTRODUCED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE LURKING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS
THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO SOME OTHERS. THE GFS AND
WRF-NMM HAVE A DIFFERENT SCENARIO ON THE PLACEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
ON THIS BOUNDARY, WITH THE WRF-NMM MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED. THE 15Z
SREF MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE MEAN IS CLOSER TO THE GFS. WE DO
LIKE THE IDEA THOUGH OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING A BIT MORE
SOUTH TO EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST MAY BACK THE FLOW SOME INTO OUR AREA. GIVEN THAT SOME CLOUDS
MAY BE AROUND AND THE POTENTIAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWER /STILL HOT THOUGH/. SINCE IT
WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID, ADDING ANOTHER DAY TO THIS EVENT, AND
THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED IN THE ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE FELT
IT WAS BEST TO KEEP THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR SUNDAY AND NOT
UPGRADE OR CANCEL. THIS WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.

REGARDING CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES, WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
HEATING AND PERHAPS TERRAIN INDUCED CIRCULATIONS COMBINE TO POP
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. WE BELIEVE IT WILL BE ISOLATED AS THERE IS NO
SOLID TRIGGER, THEREFORE WE WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHC POP IN THE
GRIDDED DATABASE. SUNDAY MAY FEATURE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC FOR SOME
CONVECTION, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS A FRONTAL
FEATURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WE MAY EVEN HAVE A LEE SIDE
TROUGH POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AND BECOME ACTIVATED TO OUR WEST. FOR
NOW, WE PLACED LOW CHC POPS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE
95 ON WESTWARD, WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS TO THE EAST. WE WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AS SOME OF
THAT MOISTURE COULD BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD, ESPECIALLY IF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND IT BECOMES GREAT ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. THE GFS WANTS TO LINK UP SOME OF THE MOISTURE SUNDAY,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THAT ATTM IS LOW.

A BLENDED APPROACH WAS MOSTLY USED FOR TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER WE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE LOWER GUIDANCE NUMBERS ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE
POTENTIALLY BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE A PATTERN CHANGE AS THE
OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW GOES UNDER AN AMPLIFICATION PHASE. AS
NEARLY ALWAYS THE CASE, THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES CREEPING IN
WHICH MAINLY REVOLVES AROUND JUST HOW AMPLIFIED THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH BECOMES. ALSO, THE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST AND WHAT COMES OF THAT AND IF ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CAN
GET PULLED NORTHWARD. FIRST, THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

HPC GUIDANCE USED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MOSTLY
BECAUSE OF ITS INTEGRITY WITH THE POTENT IMPULSE LIFTING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THE 00Z/12Z GFS WAS SHEARED WITH THIS FEATURE,
WHICH ALREADY LOOKS COMPACT ON SATELLITE. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, A
SWITCH TO A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN WAS MADE, WHICH ARE NOT DIVERGENT, BUT DO DIFFER ON THE DEPTH
AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE ECMWF
MEAN IS MOST CONCERNING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, WHERE IT
CONTINUES TO IMPLY A MUCH MORE COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE INCORPORATION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH IS
CONSIDERABLY FLATTER ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, BASICALLY REMOVES SOME OF THE ENHANCEMENT OUT OF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. WE WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION
COULD PAN OUT GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC FLUCTUATIONS SEEN SO FAR THIS
SUMMER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE TIME RANGE, OUR FORECAST USED A
COMPROMISE APPROACH. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, THE GFS CONTINUED TO
BE AN OUTLIER AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH,
BEING MUCH SHARPER AND AMPLIFIED WITH THE WAVE. HPC MENTIONED THAT
THE INSTABILITY OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS IS ANOTHER STRIKE AGAINST GOING SOLELY WITH ITS SOLUTION
ATTM. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT COMES OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST, HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS ENTITY
EVENTUALLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. WE WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF IT HAS
ANY EFFECTS ON OUR CWA WITH TIME.

BASED ON THE ABOVE, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ENTERING OUR AREA
ON MONDAY WITH A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY, THE FLOW SHOULD
PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY NIGHT. AT
LEAST BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH ATTM,
THE SURFACE FRONT MAY STALL NOT TO FAR TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGING TO ITS EAST. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGING
POKES INTO THE PLAINS, A DISTURBANCE MAY INITIATE WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY IN THE PLAINS ALONG A WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE, A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SETTLE INTO OUR AREA WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY LURKING NOT TO FAR AWAY. GRADUALLY, A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY FORM ON THE BOUNDARY AND TOSS SOME ADDED LIFT INTO
OUR AREA THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. TIMING THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
WHERE THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THIS FAR OUT IS OF
LOWER CONFIDENCE, THEREFORE WE WILL CARRY SOME CHC POPS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE BEST CHC PROBABLY OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES, AROUND 90 IN THE MORE URBANIZED AREAS MONDAY
THEN ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE A STEP DOWN AS WE GET MORE INTO THE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. THE HUMIDITY HOWEVER MAY STAY UP
FOR AWHILE THOUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA, BUT EVEN THIS MAY DROP
THROUGH TIME ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. EXCESSIVE HEAT IS
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM, THEREFORE NO OUTLOOKS OR WATCHES WILL BE
ISSUED.

THAT IS ALL FOR NOW. THANKS TO THE SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE
COLLABORATION TODAY. HAVE A GOOD ONE

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES AT 2000Z.  THERE
WAS GENERALLY A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS.

AT 2000Z, THE RADAR WAS PICKING UP THE NEW JERSEY SEA BREEZE FRONT
HUGGING THE BEACH FROM SANDY HOOK DOWN TO ASBURY PARK, THEN DRIFTING
INLAND TOWARD LAKEWOOD AND BAMBER LAKE, BEFORE RETURNING BACK TOWARD
TUCKERTON AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE BACK BAYS OF ATLANTIC COUNTY AND
CAPE MAY COUNTY.  THE SEA BREEZE IS MEETING SOME RESISTANCE FROM A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW NEAR AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.  AS
A RESULT, IT SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INLAND.  WE HAVE
INDICATED THAT IT MAY REACH KACY AROUND 2100Z.  THE DELAWARE BAY
BREEZE IS ALSO MEETING SOME RESISTANCE, AND WE HAVE SIMPLY HINTED
THAT IT COULD REACH KILG FOR A BRIEF TIME BETWEEN 2300Z AND 0100Z.

AT MID AFTERNOON, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE IN
THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE.  MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO
THE NORTH OF OUR TAF SITES.  MEANWHILE, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, ALONG WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR WILLOW GROVE.  THE PENNSYLVANIA PRECIPITATION
WAS MOSTLY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING.  HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IT, AS IT COULD AFFECT KRDG, KABE, KTTN OR KPNE.  FOR NOW,
IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT, SO WE HAVE
LEFT IT OUT OF THOSE TAFS.

ONCE THE SUN SETS, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE.  CONDITIONS
AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE AS VFR, BUT THERE MAY
BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT.

AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY, CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR,
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND REDEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER, VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY, MONDAY,
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS CONTINUED ON THE COASTAL
WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE TODAY.  WAVE HEIGHTS WERE MAINLY
IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.  AS BERTHA BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH OF 40
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE LATE TONIGHT, THE SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO
BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS.  UNTIL THAT TIME,
THE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE ROUGH CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND THE
INLETS ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

HIGH PRESSURE, LOCATED OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.  A SLOW MOVING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE, DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST, MAY PASS OFF
CAPE HATTERAS ON MONDAY.  MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

AT THIS TIME, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINED IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY FOR TODAY, AS
SWELLS FROM BERTHA CONTINUED TO REACH OUR COASTLINE.  AS BERTHA
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH OF 40 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE LATE TONIGHT, THE
SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR FOR THE COASTS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ067>071.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ067>071.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GORSE/HPC
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
454 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-191200-
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-
MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
454 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S SATURDAY WITH POTENTIALLY
EVEN UPPER 90S IN THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS. THE HEAT INDICES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 100 DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT
INDICES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO A LITTLE LOWER, IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. IN ADDITION, NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO DROP TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002-003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-016-020>023-
027-PAZ054-055-060>062-191200-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-
MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
454 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY, AND
POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 90S AT MANY PLACES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-191200-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
454 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-191200-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
454 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.